Did NOTA decide Mumbai mandate?

The results in some constituencies were affected by the number of NOTA registrations. Representation pic

In a close fight in Mumbai North West, Ravindra Waikar was finally declared as a winner with a margin of just 48 votes. Interestingly, over 15,000 voters, the highest number for the city, opted for NOTA (none of the above)in the same constituency. In addition to that, the Vanchint Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) candidate fetched over 10,000 votes. Party workers from both the Sena (UBT) and Shinde Sena pointed to these votes, which had power to change the result or increase the margin. There are two other seats where the winning margin was close to the number of NOTA entries.

Of the six constituencies in Mumbai, three saw close fights where the winning margin was less than 30,000 votes. After a tight clash and flip-flops in every round, Amol Kirtikar from Sena (UBT) was ahead by one vote over his rival Waikar from Shinde Sena. But after counting postal ballot votes, the Election Commission declared Waikar the winner by 48 votes. There were clashes between party workers from both sides after the results and also discussions over the votes towards NOTA and VBA.

"The VBA candidate fetched 10,052 votes and was in third position. Meanwhile, more than 15,000 voters in the constituency opted for NOTA. If these negative votes are considered, then the result might have changed," said a Sena (UBT) party worker. The maximum NOTA votes were reported in the Mumbai North West constituency comprising Goregaon, Jogeshwari and Andheri in the western suburbs. Even during the last election, North West took the top spot in negative voting.

This is not the only seat where the winning margin is close to the total of NOTA and rejected votes. This situation was also seen in North East where Sanjay Dina Patil won with 29,861 votes and in North Central where Congress Varsha Gaikwad won with 16,514 votes.

NOTA votes

During this election, 75,263 voters opted for NOTA in six constituencies in Mumbai to register their displeasure over the candidates. It is slightly lower than the 82,275 in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. But it is still a significant figure and affected the results of constituencies. Like in the last election, the number of NOTA voters remained at fourth or fifth position in all constituencies in Mumbai as the election was between two prominent alliances.

Except for North Central, where the Congress candidate won, all five constituencies registered more than 10,000 NOTA votes; and North West topped the list with over 15,000 voters strongly opposed to all candidates in the constituency.

NOTA has been provided as an option to the voters since 2013. By expressing no preference for the candidates, a citizen can choose to exercise his right to vote without having to pick a candidate. In 2014, the total number of NOTA votes in all six constituencies was 52,951, which was 1 per cent of the total voter turnout in that election.

VBA factor

VBA attempted to introduce a third dimension to the head-to-head battle in Mumbai. Though the share of votes for the third party reduced to merely 68,528 from over 2.3 lakh votes it received in the last election and the votes were less than one per cent of the total votes in each constituency, it had an impact on close fights by reducing votes of other candidates.

The VBA was in talks with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) until the last moment when it decided to contest separately on the majority of seats in the state, including the six in Mumbai. VBA nominated Sonal Gondane for Mumbai North, Parmeshwar Ranshur (Mumbai North West), and Abul Hasan Khan (Mumbai South Central). Additionally, Daulat Khan (North East), Santosh Ambulge (North Central) and Afzal Dawoodani (South) were announced as candidates.

Though no one came near the two main contestants in the number of votes received, the votes VBA candidates received in a few constituencies reduced margins. "Like in North East where Sanjay Dina Patil was contesting, the VBA fielded a Muslim candidate. In South Central, where Sena (UBT) was banking on votes of Anushakti Nagar, VBA nominated candidates who garnered votes from the area," said a Sena (UBT) party worker.

In 2019, despite the direct contest between Yuti (Shiv Sena, BJP) and Aghadi (Congress, NCP), VBA managed to secure 2,34,760 votes across the six Mumbai constituencies.

During the 2019 Assembly election, the VBA fielded candidates for over 250 out of the 288 seats in the Upper House, but none of them emerged victorious.

VBA's former alliance partner, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, is also known for splitting the vote.

75,263
No. of Mumbai voters who opted for NOTA