Experts sound a note of caution for Holi as Maharashtra sees sharp surge in COVID-19 cases

Doctors and health experts say all social gatherings during Holi should be avoided and people should not play with water and colour. File pic/Ashish Raje

Though the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has brought down the physical distance to be observed between masked people from 6 feet to 3 feet, stating the droplet spread of COVID-19 from person-to-person has come down, health experts in India have a word of caution for Holi.

The colour celebration of Holi is on March 29, at a time the city and state is witnessing a sharp surge in cases of COVID-19 amid sudden rainfall and increasing chances of seasonal flu. The concern is valid as even some people who have been vaccinated with both dosages, are also showing COVID symptoms. But activists quote civic chief IS Chahal, who had recently told people to not have unwanted fear about the surge, as the numbers are bound to increase with a large number of tests happening.

Dr Ketan Vagholkar, DY Patil Medical College and Dr Subhash Hira, University of Washington-Seattle

"The recent recommendations of the US CDC to reduce social distancing among masked- students and masked-teachers to less than 3 feet, instead of the earlier recommendation of less than 6 feet is based on a large study conducted by the Harvard University in Boston. While this has brought a huge relief to school children and their teachers, large communities are viewing this change with renewed hope," said Dr Subhash Hira, professor of Global Health at the University of Washington-Seattle, USA.

‘Learn from Brazil'
But Dr Hira cautioned, "The Rio carnival that was to be celebrated for one week between February 12-17, was cancelled. But people continued to socialize in large numbers. The resurgence of COVID cases made Brazil the number 1 country affected by it in the world. Its cumulative cases have crossed 12 million, and there have been 2,95,000 deaths. It is important that we in India take a lesson from this for our Holi festival. If people wear a mask and play Holi, the wet mask won't be effective as a barrier."

Dr Rajesh Dere, dean of the BKC jumbo COVID Care Centre centre, said, "The number of people getting affected are amongst the young working population (between 30 years and 50 years) and it is very evident that people are not adhering to COVID-19 restrictions seriously. They must understand that the surge graph will go in an upward direction, when social distancing goes for a toss. COVID appropriate behaviour needs to be stringently followed."

Dr Ketan Vagholkar, professor of Surgery at DY Patil Medical College said, "Citizens should avoid playing Holi. This will prevent breach of social distancing norms and use of masks. In addition it will also avoid dangerous chemical injuries to the eyes and face due to toxic colours. All social gatherings during Holi should be avoided at any cost."

‘Expect a tsunami of cases'
Dr Wiqar Shaikh, professor of Medicine, Grant Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals opined that unless special curbs are put in place all over the country during Holi, there will be a huge spike in the COVID-19 cases. "You can expect a tsunami of COVID-19 cases," expressed Dr Shaikh.

But Sanjiv Agarwal, founder, Good Governance India Foundation, said, "Statistically, rising cases do not tell the whole story if we ignore the rising number of recoveries and rising number of tests. The more you test, the more cases you find."

"Moreover, there is a huge number of uncounted infections - at least 30 times the counted, i.e. at least 40 crore to 50 crore Indians were infected and recovered, as confirmed by latest sero-surveys by ICMR. This proves COVID-19 is a very mildly fatal disease (close to a one in a thousand chance of complication leading to death, i.e. an Infection Fatality Rate, IFR below 0.001 or 0.1%), a risk much lower than many other infections," he said.

"Let's not forget TB kills more than ten times the number of people daily than in the last 90 days of COVID-19 deaths, on an average. What more proof experts need to declare that the pandemic is long over? The greatest inhibition may be the desire of the experts to remain on tv screens and the natural tendency of the governments to not easily give back control over the life of citizens - these tendencies are more virulent than COVID-19 for sure!" Agarwal concluded.