Lok Sabha election results 2024: BJP cut to size in key states but NDA poised to form govt a third time

Illustration/Uday Mohite

Mercilessly cut to size in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and some of its strongholds up north, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell short of reaching the 272 mark individually in Lok Sabha. However, the counting trends and results that had come Tuesday night showed that the BJP-led NDA was in a position to form its third government in a row.

The Opposition called the BJP's depleted show a moral defeat for PM Narendra Modi in whose name votes were sought. By Tuesday night, the BJP had won 163 seats and was leading in 77. Some I.N.D.I.A bloc leaders demanded Modi's resignation. Others said the Opposition would explore the possibility of making its government. Notwithstanding I.N.D.I.A front's posturing, the BJP remained unfazed and celebrated the victory.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA had a total of 353 seats, and the UPA won 93. The BJP's share was a massive 303 seats. The Congress had only secured 52. Five years later, the BJP had set a target of 400 for the NDA. The trends and results indicated that achieving the goal was impossible for the BJP. The ruling party had expected to plug the deficit from the gains in the eastern and southern states but in vain.

The NDA had relied heavily on PM Narendra Modi's popularity during poll campaigning. Pics/Agencies

The BJP's hatrick bid faced a major roadblock from the Congress-led I.N.D.I.A bloc. The Opposition combine was leading in 230 out of 543 seats. The CONGRESS was on its way to doubling its tally with its senior leader Rahul Gandhi winning a seat in UP and Kerala each. The voters of Amethi, where Gandhi did not contest, elected a Congress nominee and sent the Union Minister Smriti Irani, Gandhi's nemesis in 2019, packing.

Maharashtra was no different. It gave the I.N.D.I.A. bloc (also known as MVA in the state) a good lead over the NDA. The BJP reduced its individual numbers by half, while the Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) shared the spoils. NDA was leading in 18 seats and MVA in 29 seats. The Congress was all set to emerge as the single largest winner in Maharashtra, bagging more seats than the BJP and Shiv Sena (UBT), who were expected to finish with similar numbers.

The seven-phase elections were marked by changing narratives and tactics as polling progressed. The BJP relied heavily on Modi's face even as Rahul and I.N.D.I.A. bloc leaders accused the PM of destroying democracy and planning to alter the Constitution. Modi's campaign was spread across the nooks and corners of the country. In a state like Maharashtra, he focused sharply by addressing a record number of rallies, but his magic did not work as expected. For example, Mumbai, where Modi concluded the Maharashtra campaign, elected the Opposition in most places. A majority of the voters in Maharashtra chose Rahul Gandhi, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar over PM Modi.

Rahul Gandhi said that the I.N.D.I.A bloc leaders will discuss on Wednesday whether to approach NDA members to form a government at the Centre

In UP, the Samajwadi Party made significant gains, causing the BJP's severe debacle in the state that sends the highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha. The largest state destroyed all projections and predictions with ‘ulta pulta' results. It was on its way to halve BJP/NDA's strength and make Akhilesh Yadav's SP the topper. The Congress also made gains in UP.

Bihar was said to be a gainer for I.N.D.I.A. bloc but it did not live up to the Opposition's high expectations. The trends indicated the NDA's numbers to be decreasing but not as much. A last-minute alliance with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh also saved the BJP blues down south. Karnataka's alliance also worked for the BJP. Madhya Pradesh was about to give it all 29 seats. It suffered considerable losses in Rajasthan as the Congress gained there. Gujarat remained in favour of the BJP, with it winning almost all seats.

However, West Bengal dashed the BJP's hopes of bettering its 2019 numbers. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) defied the BJP's bid despite contesting the elections without being part of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc in the state. TMC remains the Opposition partner nationally and will play a crucial role in the days to come. Mamata began her national campaign by asking PM Modi to resign in the wake of the results.

Rahul Gandhi's bid

Architect of the Congress's revival, Rahul Gandhi said in New Delhi that the I.N.D.I.A. bloc will meet on Wednesday to decide whether to approach former partners such as the JD(U) and the TDP to attempt government formation at the Centre.

"We are going to have a meeting with our partners tomorrow. These questions will be raised and answered there," Rahul said at a press conference when asked if the Congress and its allies will approach parties that are part of the NDA to try and form a government.

"We won't say anything without asking the opinion of our allies. Our alliance will decide tomorrow and whatever they decide we will act on that," he said. He also said that the general elections were a fight to save the Constitution. "India's poorest and backward stood up to save the Constitution."

Sharad Pawar, who will attend the Opposition's meeting in Delhi, said he had not telephoned Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu or any other leader.

Must throw them out: Uddhav

Uddhav Thackeray said that the I.N.D.I.A. block must attempt to form a government. "We will decide the PM candidate on Wednesday. We must form a government because the BJP and the NDA are on the brink. We must throw them out," he said. He said he hoped that the TDP's Chandrababu Naidu would join the Opposition because he too was troubled a lot by the BJP.

Thackeray said the I.N.D.I.A. bloc will gather adequate numbers because the parties and independents who have been troubled by the BJP would join them against the party.

He said he expected the MVA to win all 48 seats in Maharashtra. "In fact, Modi campaigned for us. The BJP and others lost wherever he held rallies," Thackeray said. "They said that we won the previous polls by using Modi's photo. See what happened now. They used my father's photo. But people supported us. They snatched everything away from me. Now they know the asli and naqli," he said at the Shiv Sena (UBT)'s Dadar headquarters.

Still on top: Fadnavis

Maharashtra's Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who led the BJP's campaign and strategy in Maharashtra, said that Modi will be the PM for the third time because the country had given the NDA a majority. "The BJP alone is set to win the number of seats that all the parties in the Opposition together aren't leading. Also, the NDA has won handsomely in AP and Odisha. I congratulate Modi ji and the workers of the NDA across the country," he said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter).

He said the party had reduced its numbers in UP and Maharashtra. "The BJP could have gone beyond a 310-mark if we had performed as expected in West Bengal. The people have supported Modi ji very solidly," he added.

Fadnavis said it was unfortunate that the voters were misled with a false campaign that the BJP would change the Constitution. "The mandate is to be accepted and honored. We will introspect and go to the people in the Assembly elections. We will ensure that the loss in the Lok Sabha is compensated," he added.

303
Seats BJP won in 2019 polls

353
Total seats NDA won in 2019 polls

230
Seats I.N.D.I.A. bloc was leading in this year

BJP rules the map

Despite performing badly in its stronghold BJP still is the largest party

' Disclaimer: Seat number as of press time, and may have changed