Sanjay Nirupam joins Eknath Shinde-led Sena: Analysing the impact on Mumbai's political landscape

Veteran politician Sanjay Nirupam, who was recently expelled from Congress for anti-party activities, joined Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena on May 5 ahead of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. Nirupam, who had been vying to contest Lok Sabha Elections 2024, joined his 'alma mater' Shiv Sena nearly two decades after he quit the undivided party.

Nirupam, a seasoned politician with a large following, provides extensive experience and a strong grassroots network. Nirupam hopes to profit on the Shiv Sena's established presence and influence in Mumbai by linking himself with the party under the leadership of Eknath Shinde.

Nirupam surely stands to benefit from CM Shinde-led Sena's electoral machinery and get access to a well-established network of supporters and resources. However, it is worth understanding whether the former Mumbai Congress chief's move could have ripple effects on Mumbai's electoral field and the larger political landscape given the city will go into voting shortly on May 20.

mid-day.com spoke to a political analyst to understand the impact of Nirupam's move. Abhay Mokashi, a journalist and political analyst, said that joining Sena might have been the best choice for the veteran politician since he was expelled from grand-old party for six years.

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Mokashi, who is also a media trainer, said that Sanjay Nirupam had entered politics through Shiv Sena since he was acquainted to late Bal Thackeray since the former worked as an editor with then undivided party's mouthpiece Saamana.

"Sanjay Nirupam entered politics because he was editor of Hindi Saamana; that's how he was offered a ticket and became a Rajya Sabha. Although, he still had differences with the party then, he went to the Upper House of the Parliament," said Mokashi adding that he was never a directly elected representative.

He stated that when Nirupam won by contesting on Congress ticket in 2009, it was because the grand old party at the time had a good following in Mumbai.

While responding to a query on whether Nirupam's joining Sena will bear any impact on Mumbai's electoral landscape, Mokashi opined that he does not believe that it will not make a significant impact considering Nirupam is not seen as a mass leader.

"Sanjay Nirupam has a following among the hawkers since he had organised rallies and etc when the hawking policy was introduced in the city. Some people may consider voting for the alliance he represents," Mokashi said.

The analyst said both Sanjay Raut and Nirupam were given Upper House tickets by Balasaheb Thackeray; he observed unlike the former, Sanjay Nirupam cannot command the audience's attention.

"When we look at Sanjay Nirupam, has he emerged as a great orator? Has he emerged as a great leader with a significant following? The answer to these questions is no, emphatically no. So, his departure from the Congress is unlikely to make much of an impact. Perhaps, some individuals from Uttar Pradesh might consider supporting whoever Sanjay aligns with, but it's important to reiterate, he's not a mass leader," said Mokashi.

He noted that Sanjay Nirupam has joined a faction of Shiv Sena which is called as such by the Election Commission, the Shinde group. He opined that the Shinde faction in Mumbai "has taken a beating".

"Sanjay's entry might contribute to perhaps 0.5 percent of the votes, but these votes alone are insufficient to secure an election victory or significantly dent the Congress vote bank," the analyst noted.

When asked about the challenges Nirupam will face hereon to fit with Shiv Sena, he noted, that the leader's previous acquaintance with key Sena leaders may give him some reassurance however, it is unclear as to how he navigates the party's ideological environment.

"He'll fit in because he's come from the Shiv Sena, the undivided Shiv Sena, which was a hardcore Hindutva party. As long as Balasaheb Thackeray was alive, it was a hardcore Hindutva party, and strongly talking about the Marathi morals. That has changed now under Uddhav Thackeray," said Mokashi.

He added that in a way, "one can say he was on misfit and misfit in the Congress". However, he also added that given Sanjay Nirupam's silence on crucial issues plaguing Mumbai and the nation like electoral bonds had impacted his political career and that joining Shinde-led Sena, which is trying to gain its own foot since the split, has only accelerated the end of his career.

Meanwhile, political strategist and founder of Think Tank Niti Tantra, Ritwik Mehta, said that the Nirupam who has been an MP two times from Mumbai North Lok Sabha consituency had benefited from the anti-Congress vote split between Maharashtra Navnirman Sena and BJP in 2009.
Echoing similar sentiments to Mokashi, Mehta stated that Nirupam has been the non-Marathi face for Congress and shall now be the same for Shinde-led Sena.
"People belonging to multiple castes have migrated from northern parts of India to Mumbai in search of employment. This includes people from more than 30 varied castes including Vishwakarma, Kurmi, Koiri, Pal, Kanojia, Gupta, Chaurasiya, Maurya and Rajbhar castes who have been residing in Maharashtra for almost 2-3 generations now," he said adding that the communities see Nirupam as their representative.