Mumbai, prepare to face the heat for a while longer

The scorching summer is not going to end anytime soon. Pre-monsoon showers in the city and surrounding areas may have signalled the approach of the rains, but meteorologists have forecast that summer will stay a bit longer than expected, in most parts of Maharashtra. As the monsoon has been delayed in Kerala, it will take longer to arrive in Maharashtra. According to meteorologists, good rain is not expected in Kerala until at least June 4. Once the monsoon covers Kerala, it advances to parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai. An India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said that while the monsoon may arrive in Kerala in the coming days, it will most likely be little.

Monsoon delayed

"The monsoon current may take some time to reach the southwest Bay of Bengal after its onset over Kerala, the weather models have revealed so far. It usually advances over Kerala and the southwest Bay of Bengal at the same time. This suggests that while the monsoon may arrive in Kerala around the predicted date, its development may be hampered or slowed down," said the IMD official. According to meteorologists, conditions for the monsoon to arrive in Kerala will improve only when the winds gain stability and strength. With such favourable circumstances yet to materialise in the region, the onset of the monsoon may be delayed even more.

A mother protects her child from the sun at Chembur in the recent heat wave. Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

Disturbances

"With the recent strong Western Disturbance (WD) trough affecting the monsoon's northward progress and Madden-Julian Oscillation (an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds and pressures) entering unfavourable phases for the Indian Ocean, weathermen say that it is likely that the monsoon (in Maharashtra) may arrive at its normal average dates and, not before time as predicted earlier," said Rajesh Kapadia, of Vagaries of Weather, a popular weather blog.

Statewide monsoon outlook

Konkan: Warm and humid weather, with localised light showers at some places. Monsoon expected in north Konkan (including Mumbai) by June 12 or June 13, south Konkan and Goa by June 9/10
Madhya Maharashtra: Hot weather to continue. Patchy localised thunderstorm development possible towards the month-end
South central Maharashtra: monsoon expected around June 9/ 10. In North central Maharashtra around June 13
Marathwada: Very hot and mainly dry weather expected. Farmers must avoid sowing till around June 15. Monsoon expected around June 16
Vidarbha: Very hot weather to continue. Avoid sowing till around June 15.
Monsoon expected around June 15
(Source: Vagaries of weather)

June 12
Expected date of the monsoon in Mumbai