'Time is running out for Congress'

British Broadcasting Corporation's celebrity news anchor Nik Gowing has been a prominent India-watcher. Waiting to fly in for a closer look at the Lok Sabha polls, Gowing feels the results will be ruled by the voter's feeling for the incumbent coalition government and a host of local issues. He feels that these elections could see the coming of age of the young Indian politician too. He speaks to MiD DAY about Mayawati, the slow economy and the West's interest in Indian polity

You have had an eye on India and its polity since long. What are the key elements of the 2009 Lok Sabha poll?
Every election in every country is different from the last one. That's the beauty of the democratic process. The 2004 elections were about India Shining, about the nation's overall growth. This time it's about a myriad of internal issues that affect voters on a very local level. It's a vote for the record.
In a slow economic scenario, with food prices skyrocketing, with fuel prices rising coupled with international recessionary trends, the opinion of the poor in this country will play a very emphatic role in these elections.
We have realised how coupled the Indian economy is with the US. About 15 months ago the then Finance Minister P Chidambaram had said on BBC World that the Indian economy was not so closely linked with the American economy but now we know that's not the case. So the current economic situation is going to play a very decisive role. For the Congress it's a race against time.
Also, the uncertainty about security, both domestic and in the neighbouring region, will affect the voter's decision.

The number of foreign media organisations covering the Indian elections has seen an unprecedented growth. Is the West's fascination just limited to the labyrinthine process of electing the world's largest democracy's leader?
This is the first General Election in India after the Manmohan Singh-led government signed the elite agreement on civil nuclear cooperation with America. Though the final yes came after many controversies, the 123 pact has raised India's international standing. It is now at par with powerbrokers of the world like France, England and China.
The last five years have seen India's political and economic clout in the world grow significantly. Thus, more than ever before, the world is keenly looking at the election process here to understand the polity better.
Everybody is interested to know about will be the results and the coalition combinations that work out after it.

Most of the political parties have released their manifestos but there are not many significant differences. This is peculiar to the Indian election process.
I agree that the voter here may not find any substantive difference between the policies of the two major political parties, the Congress and the BJP. I think that the voter is going to be ruled by his feeling for the incumbent coalition government. If he feels the government hasn't done enough to reduce the prices of cooking oil or fuel he may not vote for it. Personal and local issues will dominate the mood.
Even in the case of security, local challenges will be important. For a voter in Mumbai, the security in the metropolis will matter, in Tamil Nadu, India's response to the Sri Lankan crisis will play an important role; for others it may be the country's response to Pakistan or Bangladesh.

Any guess about who will be the next Indian prime minister?
Regional politics will decide the Central leadership. I will not make any prediction about any personality but there are many probable prime ministerial candidates and many more who could play an important role in a coalition government after the results are out.u00a0u00a0
The only factor that I find challenging is how important a role the age of leaders will play. Traditionally, Indian politics has valued the wise, old leader. However, this election has been dominated by the next generation of leaders, who represent the emergent, mature and energetic young India that till about five months ago was at the heart of India's economic growth. I have seen them on Dalal Street and even in rural India and small towns, achieving dreams that seemed unachievable till even a decade ago.
With the proliferation of television and Internet, the role of the young leader has become even more important. This election could prove to be the watershed of the younger Indian political force.

What about Mayawati. The foreign media is gunning to understand her better. Why this sudden interest in her?
Her appearance on the Indian political scene is neither new nor dramatic. She has been rising over the years and we have been following her. But I will not read a lot into this issue. She is just one among the many regional leaders who could become important at the national level after the results are declared.

After the controversies and delays in signing the Indo-US nuclear deal, is the West wary of another Left-supported government in Delhi? Lately, the Congress has been sending feelers to the Left leaders about renewing their coalition.
There is nothing to be wary about. There might have been delays in signing the pact but the Congress managed to go ahead with it. We have to give the Prime Minister credit for holding off the elections till 2009. There were chances of it being held anytime since last February.
The challenge is to work with whoever comes to power.

In the US polls, technology is an integrated part of every candidate's campaign strategy. In India, however, it is just a marginal player.
While during the last elections, the use of technology for campaigning was limited, this year we are seeing it as an effective force. With the number of cellphone users in the country rising phenomenally, both in urban and rural areas, leaders have been using it to reach out to people. Its final impact, however, can be judged only after the poll. The use of the Internet, though, is still restricted. Technology may affect results but only marginally. However, technology has helped people in the remotest parts of the country to be heard.

A five-week-long election is unheard of in other countries. Does this lengthy process confuse the Western media?
For the international media, the Indian polling process may seem long and complicated but the Election Commission has in place an effective procedure to take into account the opinion of every Indian who has the right to vote.
It's an extraordinary event. I feel the polling process may become lengthier as the population grows. Keeping in mind the security threat to India, one of the worst in the world, it's a wonder that the polls are taking place.