Dharmendra Jore: On a roll, but BJP still has its task cut out

There was a time when the BJP was called a party with a limited base. But with the advent of Narendra Modi, it has been extending its area of influence in every big or small election. Maharashtra is no exception. Under CM Devendra Fadnavis, who has spent half his term in the state government, the BJP has reached places where the erstwhile rulers have had unchallenged reign. Latur, a formidable domain of ex-CM late Vilasrao Deshmukh is the latest addition to the BJP's kitty. Although the gap between the number of seats the BJP won and the Congress bagged is just three, the fact that Fadnavis and his junior in the Cabinet, Sambhaji Patil Nilangekar, have taken the BJP tally from a big zero in the previous election to 36 in the Latur civic body, is a noticeable political development.

The triumphs in Latur and Chandrapur, yet another civic body where the BJP ousted the Congress last week, are an icing on the cake for the BJP which emerged as number one in the recently held civic and ZP polls across the state. On the other hand, the Congress surprised others including the BJP and Shiv Sena in Parbhani civic polls, where it defeated its previous ruling partner the NCP. And what should satisfy the Congress is that the total number of seats it won in the three places is slightly less than the BJP. But its failure in retaining Latur outshines the Congress' improved performance. The fractured party isn't in the mood to analyse Latur's 'so-near-yet-so-far' verdict and is very content in blaming late Deshmukh's legislator son Amit and his family for causing a close defeat.

Planning for Latur
Latur has buoyed the BJP like never before. The poll planning for Latur started a long time ago. The BJP government turned the town's water crisis into a national event last year when it carried water to a parched population from distant places in train tankers. The Deshmukhs were accused of nepotism and targetted systematically. The BJP had already won the Latur Lok Sabha seat, and then it bagged the ZP and took over civic body last week. The BJP's next target is to send Amit Deshmukh packing in the 2019 Assembly polls.

It isn't just about Latur. The BJP has tried making inroads in several other ex-CMs' strongholds. It succeeded in Solapur, where Sushilkumar Shinde remained undefeated for several terms, either in Lok Sabha or Assembly. Shinde lost a Lok Sabha seat to a BJP minnow in 2014, but his daughter Praniti regained in Assembly. Early this year, Shinde lost power in the local civic corporation as well.

Other places in sight
The BJP has two ex-CMs, late Vasantrao Naik and late Sudhakarrao Naik's, Yavatmal district in a full control. It also has Marotrao Kannamwar's Chandrapur, which also happens to be Fadnavis family's native district. Late AR Antulay's Raigad district has a mixed control and Panvel's first-ever civic elections, to be held any day soon, will give the BJP an opportunity to dent non-BJP dominants there.

With two more years to go for the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has high hopes from Vidarbha, once a Congress citadel, to rely on heavily. The BJP has tasted success in Marathwada prunning the Shiv Sena, the Congess, and the NCP. The real test, however, lies ahead in Nanded, a trusted vote bank of another Congress family of ex-CMs Ashok Chavan and his late father Shankarrao.

Other than Nanded, the BJP hasn't been able to damage Sharad Pawar's prospects in Baramati in western Maharashtra though it has achieved unimaginable by winning the Congress' Sangli in Lok Sabha and local elections. Till then Sangli was synonymous with ex-CM late Vasantdada Patil and his family. Another district in western Maharashtra where the BJP hasnt really made a serious damage to the Congress and NCP is Satara. Two ex-CMs, late Yashwantrao Chavan and Fadnavis' immediate predecessor Prithviraj Chavan, belong here. Ashok Chavan is one of the two Congress MPs that Maharashtra elected defying the Modi wave.

Along with civic polls in Panvel, the Muslim-dominated Mira-Bhayander, Malegaon, and Bhiwandi, a Congress-dominated Ahmednagar, Dhule, Nandurbar, Sangli and a local front-ruled Jalgaon, three more ZPs and 8,000 of 28,000 gram panchayats in the state will go to polls by next year end. So, the BJP has its task cut out. It has cut its primary rival the Shiv Sena to size in places like Mumbai, and in future it is expected to focus even more on the Sena though the two have pledged to go together yet again in Lok Sabha. In that case, a real test for Modi-Fadnavis will be the next Assembly polls. The grapevine says that the BJP is wooing some 50 non-BJP legislators to defect ahead of the elections, and get most of them elected, so that it will not need the Sena's support in government formation.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com