Analysing key factors likely to shape 2024 Lok Sabha elections

The state assembly elections in India have set the stage for the much-anticipated 2024 Lok Sabha elections in April-May 2024. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has received a significant boost from its victories in the Hindi belt states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. These results underscore the BJP's continued dominance, primarily driven by Modi's enduring popularity.

According to Morning Consult, which tracks approval ratings of world leaders, Modi enjoys a staggering 78 per cent approval among Indians surveyed in late November, with a net approval of +60, a remarkable consistency since August 2019.

While the BJP's pole position is evident, it's essential to recognise that state election results may not mechanically predict voter behaviour in the upcoming general elections. Traditionally, there was a discernible correlation between state and national elections, but recent trends suggest a breakdown in this relationship. The Congress Party's success in the December 2018 assembly elections in Chhattisgarh and its subsequent defeat in the Lok Sabha elections less than six months later exemplify this shift.

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However, there's reason to believe that the correlation between state and national elections could strengthen in 2024 due to Modi's unparalleled popularity. The electorate's incentive to support the BJP at the national level, reinforcing Modi's position, may play a pivotal role.

The road to 2024 presents several key issues that will shape the political landscape

1. Recently held state elections

Historically, there was a correlation between state and national elections, with ruling state parties gaining momentum early in their tenure. However, recent years have witnessed a breakdown in this correlation. While the BJP's celebration is justified, it would be shortsighted to assume that state results precisely predict national outcomes. Modi's popularity could potentially strengthen this correlation in 2024.

2. INDIA alliance

In the 2014 and 2019 elections, the BJP benefitted from a fragmented opposition, facing multiple parties competing with each other. To counter this, more than two dozen opposition parties announced the formation of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, popularly known as INDIA alliance. This alliance, ranging from the Congress Party to regional parties, aims to present a unified front against the BJP. However, challenges such as agreeing on a common platform, leadership vacuum, and seat-sharing agreements pose significant hurdles.

The opposition must move beyond mere anti-BJP sentiment and articulate a coherent alternative vision for governance. The absence of a clear leader within the INDIA alliance puts it at a disadvantage compared to the ruling alliance, which boasts Modi's charismatic leadership. The opposition's ability to develop a forward-looking political narrative that resonates with voters is critical.

3. Backward castes

The battle for the allegiance of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), constituting a substantial voter bloc, is a crucial factor. The BJP, under Modi's leadership, successfully attracted OBCs, especially the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), in previous elections. However, the demand for a comprehensive caste census in states like Bihar has brought caste-related issues to the forefront.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar championed the cause of a comprehensive caste census, revealing that OBCs make up 63 per cent of the state's population. This has fuelled demands for proportional reservations in government jobs. The BJP's response, including the fate of the Rohini Commission's report on sub categorisation of OBCs, will significantly influence the political narrative and determine the party's support among different caste groups.

4. Welfare schemes

Welfare schemes and their impact on voting behaviour are poised to be pivotal in the 2024 elections. The Modi government's focus on "new welfarism" involves significant investments in the public distribution of goods and direct cash transfers. The expansion in cash transfers and in-kind assistance has been substantial, reaching millions of beneficiaries.

Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian notes in "New welfarism of India's Right" that the BJP's economic program includes a critical pillar of "new welfarism." The government's initiatives, including direct cash transfers and the extension of pandemic-era schemes, have contributed to rising living standards. The BJP's ability to innovate in this domain and respond to the opposition's welfare promises will shape public opinion.

In the recently concluded state assembly elections, parties across the spectrum made lavish promises of transfers if brought to power. The BJP, for instance, announced substantial cash transfers in Mizoram and Chhattisgarh. The opposition has homed in on the BJP's welfare plank, aiming to challenge its association with numerous central welfare schemes.

While welfare promises do not guarantee victory, they play a crucial role in shaping voter perceptions. The BJP's success in the 2019 election, partly attributed to welfare schemes, suggests that voters who received benefits were more likely to support the party. As the opposition counters with its own promises, the BJP is likely to innovate further in this domain, given the fierce response to its welfare initiatives.

5. Foreign policy in political discourse

India's evolving role on the global stage has blurred the lines between elite and mass issues. Traditionally, foreign policy, national security, and trade were considered elite issues, while mass issues pertain to everyday concerns like inflation, jobs, and welfare benefits.

Modi's government has successfully integrated foreign policy into domestic political discourse. The 2019 Pulwama attack and subsequent developments, including India's strikes on alleged terrorist training camps in Pakistan, generated a nationalist fervour that Modi capitalised on during the campaign. The impact of foreign policy on voter behaviour, particularly in times of security crises, cannot be understated.

There's a widespread perception that Modi has elevated India's status globally, ensuring the country has a seat at the global high table. India's G20 presidency and the government's marketing campaign celebrating this achievement highlight the domestic political salience of how India is perceived internationally. The opposition faces challenges in critiquing the government's foreign policy without being perceived as undermining national interests.

As India gears up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP holds a strong position with Modi's popularity and organizational strength. The opposition, despite recent state election setbacks, has attempted to present a united front. The challenges of coordinating diverse opposition parties, addressing caste dynamics, navigating the welfare discourse, and engaging with foreign policy issues will shape the political narrative.

Crafting nuanced strategies that resonate with the diverse electorate remains crucial for all political parties involved. The multifaceted nature of Indian democracy demands a comprehensive understanding of these issues to navigate the complex electoral landscape.