Can BJP achieve its 370-plus seats target in 2024 Lok Sabha polls?

In his Lok Sabha speech last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi exemplified confidence in coming into power for the third consecutive time and set an ambitious target for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) to win 370-plus seats and 400-plus seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Giving a war cry of ‘abki baar 400 paar', the ruling party workers across the country are leaving no stone unturned to achieve the target set by their supreme leader. But the question arises: can the BJP break its record in the upcoming Lok Sabha election battle? Political experts say it is unlikely considering the challenges in states where the BJP is in alliance.

Electoral battle:

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured a majority by winning 303 seats across the country, including all constituencies in nine states and union territories, by contesting 436 seats. This was a significant improvement from their 2014 victory, where they won 282 seats by contesting on 282. The party not only won 21 more seats in 2019 but also increased its strike rate.

For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, for the BJP to achieve Modi's set target of 370 seats, it needs 67 more seats. The party has already set a foot ahead by releasing a list of 195 candidates. However, the final list is awaited, which will give a clear picture of the total number of seats and the state-wise seats the BJP will fight for.

Also Read: Will Congress' Bharat Jodo 'Nyay' Yatra yield results as expected?

In its first list of candidates, the party did not include the names of candidates from states where they are in alliance with strong regional parties, like Maharashtra. The BJP-led NDA presently has 40 members, with Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United joining back. The BJP is trying to woo regional parties to fight the Congress-led INDIA bloc which was formed last year to defeat the BJP. Although the INDIA bloc has internal differences and clashes, the fact remains that the alliance is the only strong opposition to the BJP.

As political analyst Prashant Kishor says, the narrative is shifted from ‘will BJP win' to ‘will BJP win 400 seats.'

NDA members will be crucial:

Political commentator Ashok Wankhede said, "For the BJP to achieve a landslide victory in 2024, the NDA and like-minded regional parties will play a crucial role. To woo the regional members, the BJP not only gave a couple of Rajya Sabha seats to newly joined members like Ashok Chavan or the NDA's Milind Deora, but also awarded two Bharat Ratna."

Although Union Minister Amit Shah recently said the highest civilian awards to Karpoori Thakur and Chaudhary Charan Singh were announced only considering their contributions to Indian society, the opposition claimed the awards were given only eyeing electoral support by followers of the two late leaders.

Soon after the Bharat Ratna announcement to Thakur, Nitish Kumar's JDU re-joined the NDA, and Bharat Ratna to Chaudhary brought Jayant Chaudhary's RLD into the alliance.

"Firstly, how strong is the NDA, and secondly, from where will the BJP bring more 67 seats?" said Wankhede. "In some big states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, the BJP is already strong. However, in other states, like Karnataka, people still remember the BJP's misrule. In Maharashtra, the three-party alliance is yet to decide on seat-sharing. The Shiv Sena and NCP are strong regional parties; thus, they won't leave their ruling seats," Wankhede added.

The BJP is pushing for southern India to increase its electoral win in the Lok Sabha. However, after defeat in Telangana in recent assembly elections, the party's fight to raise vote share in southern states persists.

"BJP is almost non-existent in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana. Its target will be to save the existing seats. The party may increase its vote share considering on-ground efforts, but significantly winning more Lok Sabha seats from southern states is unlikely," Wankhede added.

With stronger alliances and strategies with regional parties, the NDA can substantially increase its vote share compared to 2019. "The NDA can easily add 10 to 20 per cent more seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha from the existing 330," Prashant Kishor said.

However, he also said that although the BJP won't cross 370, there are no signs of Congress increasing its Lok Sabha seats in 2024 compared to 2019. ‘Even if Congress wins 50 plus seats, it won't change the political wave in the country anyway," Kishor asserted.

Weak INDIA bloc benefits BJP

Over 18 months ago, the Congress-led Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) was formed with 28 political parties to defeat the ruling BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The INDIA bloc did raise hope for a strong opposition against the nationalist BJP-led NDA government, but instead of strengthening it, the INDIA bloc is losing its grip day by day.

With major INDIA bloc members like the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal declaring all 42 seat candidates for Lok Sabha 2024 and the Samajwadi Party earlier announcing its seat share locally in Uttar Pradesh, the hopes for the alliance giving a tough fight to the NDA are lean.

Commenting on Congress' fight against the BJP, Ashok Wankhede said, "The BJP has a clear win against Congress candidates. It will have to fight hard in constituencies where other regional parties (TMC, SP, AAP, etc.) leaders are nominated."

A recent survey by TN-ETG Research showed the NDA will fall short of its 400-seat target, but the alliance will have a landslide victory in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

As per the survey, the NDA is likely to win 358 to 398 seats, while INDIA bloc might gain about 110 to 130. While the BJP alone is likely to win 333 to 363 seats and the Congress 28 to 48 seats.

But the fact that the Congress-led led-INDIA bloc is shrinking takes away the purpose of defeating the BJP at the Centre.

The BJP-led NDA may not achieve its ‘abki baar 400 paar' but the weak opposition's poor electoral strategies allow the BJP to exemplify its confidence in breaking its electoral win record.