Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: What changed for BJP in Uttar Pradesh

Poll officials at a counting centre in Gorakhpur. Pic/PTI

The biggest setback and surprise for the BJP in this Lok Sabha election comes from Uttar Pradesh, where the ruling party is losing half of its seats. The BJP had aimed for 70-75 seats following the inauguration of the Ram Mandir to secure a majority, but the outcome of the polls has caught everyone off guard. mid-day, on the ground during the elections, sensed some local dissatisfaction over several issues, including inflation, paper leaks, stray cattle destroying crops, and unemployment. While people in rural areas seemed satisfied with how UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath handled law and order, the caste-based political arithmetic of the INDIA bloc worked well. The BJP had won 72 seats in 2014 and 62 in 2019 under Narendra Modi's leadership, but it seems that UP is no longer voting based solely on Modi's name.

The Opposition, under the INDIA bloc and the Samajwadi Party (SP) in particular, played their cards well and won 35 seats while they were in the lead for 2 seats by 11 pm, as per the Election Commission of India (ECI) data, while the BJP won 33 seats and Congress 6. Particularly the selection of candidates by SP national president Akhilesh Yadav, from all castes, communities, and religions, played a significant role in their gains in the Hindi heartland. A notable example was Faizabad, which includes Ayodhya.

Despite the inauguration of the Ram Mandir, the BJP lost this seat. SP candidate Awadhesh Prasad, a prominent Dalit leader who has served as an MLA for nine terms in different Faizabad constituencies, gave a tough fight to BJP's Lallu Singh. This was an unreserved seat, but despite that, Yadav fielded a Dalit candidate and it worked in his favour as he won the seat with 5,54,289 votes. Singh's controversial remarks about changing the constitution had angered Dalit voters, and Prasad's Dalit background helped him secure a remarkable victory in what was considered a BJP stronghold.

Akhilesh Yadav with Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi during a public meeting for Lok Sabha elections, in Gorakhpur in May. File pic

A major turning point was the issue of the constitution, with the SP and Congress highlighting that the BJP wanted to amend it. This allegation resonated with Dalit voters. Another factor that united Yadav voters in favour of the SP was an incident in Kannauj, where BJP workers washed a temple after Akhilesh Yadav's visit. Yadav capitalised on this, telling the public that the BJP doesn't want ‘lower-caste' people visiting temples, which further increased support for the SP. Additionally, the absence of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) during the elections played a vital role. The SP successfully conveyed to BSP voters that Mayawati was covertly supporting the BJP, leading many Dalit voters, who traditionally supported the BSP, to shift their allegiance to the SP.

Further, the SP-Congress alliance effectively ensured that each seat was contested based on candidates and local issues, rather than the persona of Prime Minister Modi. For the first time in ten years, voters in UP did not vote based on Modi's name. Another factor that influenced the outcome was the concern that Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath would be sidelined if the BJP won, similar to what happened in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The opposition emphasised this in their meetings and rallies, and it appeared to resonate with the electorate. It was also suggested that internal politics and the lesser involvement of Adityanath in the elections contributed to the BJP's debacle in UP.

Faizabad

mid-day was on the ground to understand the voters' mood, and it came as a surprise that voters in Ayodhya, near the Ram Mandir, were upset with the BJP over the handling of road widening and the demolition of their houses and shops. Locals claimed that they hadn't received fair compensation, getting only '25,000 to '1.5 lakh for demolished properties, which was far below market value. The locals also told mid-day that the media was not around when their houses were demolished. Some even asked the mid-day reporter to leave as they didn't wish to speak with the media "who are biased and do not report on real issues".

Locals also faced significant hurdles due to security arrangements in Ayodhya, allegedly struggling to enter their own homes without difficult-to-obtain passes, particularly if they owned more than one car. It was also alleged that shops were allocated to outsiders, especially Gujaratis, for business. In rural areas of Faizabad, stray cattle were a major problem, highlighted in the 2022 assembly elections but left unaddressed. Issues such as paper leaks and unemployment were already causing discontent with the BJP. The INDIA bloc effectively exploited caste politics, which proved to be the final blow after Singh made controversial remarks about the constitution which did not sit well with Dalit voters. The BJP was confident after the Ram Mandir inauguration that any candidate could win by banking on PM Modi's name, but this wasn't the case.

Amethi

The stronghold of Congress, penetrated by BJP's Smriti Irani in 2019 by defeating Rahul Gandhi with a margin of over 50,000 votes, was one of the most talked-about and high-profile seats. This time, Congress played its cards silently, with only the Gandhis and Mallikarjun Kharge knowing who they would field. The BJP assumed that either Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi would contest from Amethi, considering it a family seat. However, Congress's announcement of K L Sharma took the BJP by surprise. By fielding their loyalist, K L Sharma, Congress made the Amethi battle low profile. Sharma has been managing the Gandhi family elections for the past 41 years and is well-known and respected in Amethi.

Meanwhile, Irani, facing anti-incumbency and internal politics, struggled to maintain her position. She had promised to provide sugar at '13 per kg in 2019, but that did not materialise. When mid-day visited Amethi, many voters expressed their disappointment and longing for the Gandhi family's presence, feeling that Amethi had lost its value in Delhi without them. During Rajiv Gandhi's era, Amethi residents had direct access to the PM's house, which they still remember fondly.

Like other areas, rural Amethi faced issues with stray cattle, leading some farmers to stop farming altogether. Local authorities were unresponsive to these problems. While some road work was done during Irani's tenure, many claimed it was just repairs, with no significant improvements. Irani tried to connect with voters by registering her name in Amethi and building a house there, but it didn't resonate with the locals. The BJP's attempt to discredit Sharma by calling him a "chaprasi" (peon) backfired, as voters didn't appreciate the derogatory term. Ultimately, Sharma defeated Irani by over 1.6 lakh votes.

Rae Bareli

People in Rae Bareli, the Congress heartland, have voted in large numbers for the party, as Rahul Gandhi was contesting from there this time. Rae Bareli citizens exclusively cast ballots based on the Gandhi family name because they think the Gandhis conduct good deeds. Voters claim that if the party had selected someone else after Sonia Gandhi, they would have opposed the Congress; but, since Rahul Gandhi's name was revealed, the contest has been limited to one side. Gandhi prevailed in the election with a 3.90 lakh vote margin.

Jaunpur

This is another important seat the BJP was eying after losing it to the SP-BSP alliance in 2019. The BJP fielded Mumbai's Kripashankar Singh, who was once a strong leader of Congress in Maharashtra, but he left the party over the issues of Ram Mandir and Article 370. It was said that he was facing heat from the income tax department and Enforcement Directorate and hence decided to shift his base. Singh was facing strong SP candidate Babu Singh Kushwaha, who is from a backward community. The BSP had fielded its sitting MP, Shyam Singh Yadav, after withdrawing the name of Srikala Singh, wife of strong local candidate and gangster Dhananjay Singh.

It was said that due to BJP fear, Srikala withdrew to benefit the BJP, as due to her presence, it would have been difficult for the BJP to win. It was also alleged that Srikala withdrew her candidacy as her husband was being questioned by the NIA and there was a threat that he might face arrest. Singh is a strong political personality in Jaunpur, a Rajput community, but this time the Yadav, Dalit, and Muslim citizens voted in favour of SP. Despite an appeal from Dhananjay Singh to vote for BJP, his supporters understood that he was being pressurised and so they refrained from supporting the party. As a result, the SP candidate won the seat with a total of 5,09,130 votes.

Gorakhpur

The stronghold of UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is being retained by the sitting MP and Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan. The issues here are similar to those in other parts of the UP, but people here were happy with the work being done by the chief minister, and purely in his name, they voted. The SP alliance had fielded Bhojpuri actress Kajal Nishad from the Nishad community, where she fought very well by focusing on rural Gorakhpur, but the cast arithmetic didn't work here. She was defeated by a margin of more than 1 lakh votes. Locals said inflation, unemployment and exam paper leaks are major issues here, but the voting was happening purely in Yogi's name.

62
No. of seats BJP won in 2019 LS polls

Uttar Pradesh 80

BJP 33
INC 6
SP 37'
RLD 2
ASPKR 1
ADAL 1