Lok Sabha elections 2024: Will it be win-win-win in Tamil Nadu?

Narendra Modi during an election campaign road show. Pic/PTI

Like a good Test match, all three results are possible as Tamil Nadu votes for the Lok Sabha on Friday. The DMK alliance, which is in the impossible position of defending a near-100 per cent record from 2019 of winning 38 of the 39 seats, will grudgingly accept anything above 30 seats this time. The ADMK, which is at a crossroads in terms of leadership, will be happy if it can win double-digit seats. And the BJP, which has managed not more than 5 per cent vote share in the state will be happy if it crosses 10 per cent, even if it does not yield any wins.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves to supporters. Pic/X

As campaigning draws to a close, here is where the biggies in the southern state stand. By far the biggest achievement of K Annamalai - appointed in July 2021 as the youngest state president - is that the BJP is no more a bad word in Tamil Nadu, with the #GoBackModi trend seeing a downturn, at least among some. Probably for the first time in 10 years, there seems to be no anti-Modi wave. This seems to have been acknowledged by the party's super bosses, who have campaigned in regions where they are convinced the party is not seen as a pariah anymore.

Of the 23 seats, BJP will contest in its rag-tag alliance, bosses are hopeful of winning four. The biggest ally is the Pattli Makkal Katchi (PMK) - a party of Vanniars - which is strong in certain pockets. But the allocation arithmetic has not been properly nailed, with both parties contesting from some weak areas. A big hope is TTV Dinakaran, a splinter ADMK leader and nephew of the disgraced Sasikala. His breakaway party contests two seats and he is assured of a strong showing in Theni, a stronghold of O Panneerselvam, who ceded his home turf to contest in Ramanathapuram, where BJP is strong and the Thevar bloc stronger.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah during a roadshow. Pic/AP

"Annamalai, as a young leader is dynamic and energetic, making him appealing to the youth," South Chennai BJP candidate and his predecessor Tamilisai Soundararajan told mid-day. "While I respect previous leaders, and I myself did a lot, he has taken the PM's message to every home." Old-timer Pon Radhakrishnan is also full of praise. "Someone with his education background (Engineering-MBA from prestigious institutes) is a big draw with the aspirational youth of the state," the Kanyakumari candidate said. "And the fact that he took VRS from IPS adds to the aura. His no-holds barred attacks on the DMK has won people over. And his recent anti-drugs crusade that caught ruling party members in international drug rings has worked well for us."

Strength
K Annamalai has attracted the youth and fence sitters.

Weakness
Party still lacks ground level organisation that can match the Dravidian parties.

Opportunities
If voters decide NDA is returning to power, they may be more inclined to vote BJP in the hope that their MP will get some work done, which opposition can't, in terms of national projects.

Threats
If voters agree with the opposition's nuanced arguments that the BJP has institutionalized corruption, eaten away at constitutional bodies, and is hell bent on homegenising society.

In numbers
2014: 5.5%
2019: 3.6%

What will be a good result
Double digit vote share, with more than one seat.

A leader has to prove that he is worthy

This is the first big electoral test for former chief minister and current ADMK boss Edappadi Palanisamy after he took solo control of the party by outmaneuvering Jayalalithaa's aide V K Sasikala and her nephew in 2017, with the help of another former chief minister, O Panneerselvam. In 2021, he got the better of OPS also, and took firm control of the party.

Edappadi Palanisamy was chief minister of Tamil Nadu from 2017 to 2021. Pic/PTI

Anti-incumbency should help him to a certain degree, as will his own growth as a mass leader. He has been attracting good crowds in his campaign this time. However, the biggest challenge for him is to show real numbers in the Lok Sabha polls, which will tighten his grip for the upcoming 2026 assembly election, which will then provide him with a real chance to take power in Tamil Nadu.

Another question facing the party is what it will do after the final numbers are out. It had an acrimonious break-up with the BJP in the run up to the Lok Sabha election. Will it be in a position to work its way back into a central government if the numbers favour it?

DMDK party founder Vijayakanth

Strength
Ever since he took sole control of the party EPS has grown as a leader. From road shows, he has graduated to pulling crowds in public meetings; understands governance thanks to stints in various key ministries.

Weakness
No solid alliance partners; in fact, he could have given a lifeline to a future adversary by roping in the late Vijayakanth's DMDK.

Opportunities
There is serious discontent with the DMK in many pockets of Tamil Nadu; given the state's yo-yo voting nature, might reap the windfall.

Threats
The BJP is looking to capture the prime anti-DMK space, and is expected to eat into the ADMK vote share.

In numbers
2014: 45%
2019: 19%

What will be a good result
EPS has to show his party men and the people of Tamil Nadu he is capable of securing a 30 per cent vote share if he is to have a chance in the coming Assembly election. If the party secures 10 more seats, it can consider it a major win.

When even a win can turn into a loss

The last five years have seen two stellar wins for the DMK under M K Stalin's leadership. In 2019, it blanked the ADMK-BJP alliance in the national polls, and in 2021, it ended a decade in the wilderness, securing a comprehensive mandate in the Assembly polls after overthrowing the post-Jayalalithaa ADMK government.

MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi represents Thoothukkudi constituency. Pic/X

Now, it is back at the hustings, battling anti-incumbency of its own, and a renewed two-front attack from a growing BJP and an assertive ADMK. People in Chennai and certain southern districts are clearly unhappy with the government's flood relief efforts after two deluges last year. But will they punish the DMK for that in the national election, or be more nuanced?

Strength
A strong multi-pronged alliance with Congress, Dalits, Communists, and minorities. Ongoing welfare programmes in the state, coupled with what is, in Stalin's own words, the alliance's star campaigner - the Congress manifesto, with national welfare promises, including 30 lakh central government jobs. Each party in the alliance has a strong grassroots presence in its respective stronghold.

Tamil Nadu chief minister M K Stalin

Weakness
Currents of anti-incumbency and unhappiness in certain pockets. Anti-Modi sentiment is no more prevalent like 5 years ago. Voter fatigue is a real possibility after national, state and local bodies sweep in five years.

Opportunities
If people decide to throw in their lot with the national INDIA alliance, DMK could reap the windfall in TN.

Threats
A belligerent BJP, which has managed to sling corruption mud on DMK and managed to make it stick, via central agencies' action. A recent setback has been the arrest of a party office-bearer in an international drug ring.

DMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin during an election campaign rally. Pic/PTI

In numbers
2014: 24%
2019: 33%

What will be a good result
Needs above 40 per cent vote share and 30+ seats to show it is still preeminent party in the state.

April 19
Day polling begins