Will Congress' Bharat Jodo 'Nyay' Yatra yield results as expected?

Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as the Congress battles with its back to the wall, Rahul Gandhi has chosen to hit the streets for the second time with his ‘Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra'.

The Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra began in strife-torn Manipur on January 14 and will conclude in Mumbai on March 20 after covering 6,713 km across 15 States.

The yatra spans several states and 255 Lok Sabha constituencies and aims to promote social justice and Congress' electoral engagement ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

The yatra which was also objectified at boosting Congress' low confidence after repeated electoral losses, got a big blow during its inception itself. Senior leader and former Union Minister, Milind Deora announced his exit from Congress on the morning of January 14 and joined hands with Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Deora's exit from Congress took away the limelight from Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. Congress received immense criticism for failing to retain its leaders.

The yatra which is underway amid twists and turns, attacks from Congress' own allies, wrong timing, and flawed strategies, has raised questions if the yatra will yield results as expected.

However, Congress is confident the Yatra will raise their vote share.

Massive welcome by supporters, but will it cash into votes?

Congress' first Bharat Jodo Yatra in 2022, where Rahul Gandhi walked from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, was a huge success. Millions of people across the country joined Gandhi in his walk- especially the youth. However, despite the massive support to the yatra, Congress in the 2023 assembly elections lost major states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The 2022 yatra's success did re-brand Rahul Gandhi as a politician, but yielded no electoral progress to the party.

Even the ongoing Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra was welcomed by a sea of supporters in Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Orissa. Despite the law-and-order situation during the yatra in Assam and West Bengal, people's support for the Rahul Gandhi-led yatra was unwavering. But again, the question arises as to how many of these will turn into votes and help Congress win more seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Congress claims that there is more to the yatra than electoral win as the party aims to bring up issues like unemployment, inflation, caste census and social justice. But to address these issues, the party needs its leaders to represent in the parliament, for which winning elections is mandatory. After covering Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat, the yatra will enter Maharashtra.

Maharashtra Congress spokesperson, Atul Londe said, "The yatra will enter the state from north Maharashtra on March 15. We are confident it will get massive support."

Londe also expressed confidence that the yatra will help Congress to increase its vote share not only in the state but across the country in the Lok Sabha elections. "First Bharat Jodo Yatra was a success and we won elections in the states like Telangana. We are confident that the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra will be a success too", he said.

Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar faction) leader from Mumbai, Rakhi Jadhav said, "We are excited to welcome Rahul Gandhi in Maharashtra. The yatra is to raise social issues. It is a secular yatra and we hope all INDIA bloc leaders in Mumbai will join".

Status of INDIA bloc

At a time when events like Ayodhya Ram Temple, Uniform Civil Code implementation, and puja at cellar at Gyanvapi mosque are shaping election campaigns in the country, Rahul Gandhi has not only left leaders in Delhi to fight for themselves, but he is talking about caste census and social justice. Although these issues are pertinent and serious for the country, voters are currently inclined more towards nationalism.

In July 2023, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc was formed under the leadership of Congress. The bloc consisted of 28 parties in the country, with the objective of defeating the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 national elections. The bloc held its first event together in December 2023, when nationwide protests were launched against the suspensions of opposition MPs. The INDIA bloc did raise hope for a strong opposition against the nationalist BJP-led NDA government, but instead of strengthening, the INDIA bloc is losing its grip day by day, with Lok Sabha elections merely a couple of months away.

After Bihar's Nitish Kumar's JD(U) exit from the INDIA bloc, in the recent development in Maharashtra, the Nationalist Congress Party's symbol was granted to Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar faction, who has joined hands with BJP. Thus, further weakening the bloc and consequently the bloc leader, the Congress party.

INDIA bloc leaders missing from Congress' Yatra

Congress is criticised for embarking on the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra alone and sidelining the INDIA bloc parties. The yatra has turned into a Rahul Gandhi's rally instead of Congress' country-wide journey to connect with voters. Former Congress' senior leader Ghulam Nabi Azad recently expressed his discontent and said that Congress going solo at the yatra and neglecting its allies, 'won't take it anywhere.'

Speaking with the media last month, Azad highlighted that, "Other political parties should have been taken on the board to travel across the country, which would have sent a larger message. The leader fell short in unifying the alliance leaders", Azad said aiming at Rahul Gandhi.

"When the INDIA bloc was formed, I told people to wait and see its fate. And you can see it", Azad said who was the general secretary of the Congress party for 45 long years.

INDIA bloc got a big blow after its convener, Nitish Kumar, chief minister of Bihar left the alliance and rejoined the BJP-led NDA government. Kumar's decision came at the time when the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra was about to enter Bihar state. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said that invitations were given to JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar, Rashtriya Janata Dal's Lalu Prasad Yadav and other INDIA bloc leaders in Bihar to join the yatra. However, none were seen amid a change in government and Nitish Kumar officially joined the BJP.

Apart from this, in West Bengal, Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee did not join the yatra. Banerjee also announced before the yatra entered West Bengal that she would run solo in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Although Banerjee is laying her terms now to continue being part of the INDIA bloc, her public announcement shattered the alliance raising doubts that other prominent leaders too could take away their support from Congress.

In Uttar Pradesh too, Samajwadi Party chief and former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has made it clear that his party will do what it thinks is best and no clearance from Congress is needed.

Speaking with the media last week, Yadav said, "How can I join the yatra if I haven't got the invitation?"

Responding to Yadav, Congress' media in-charge Jairam Ramesh clarified that the Congress is still 'finalising the route' and events in Uttar Pradesh. It is to be seen, if things improve between Yadav and Congress and if he joins the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra when it enters Uttar Pradesh.

What experts say

Senior journalist and Political analyst, Omkar Chaudhary says that the 'mahagathbandhan' (INDIA bloc) does not exist anymore.

"The INDIA bloc was strong, but it was known that when seat-sharing talks would commence, sooner or later the alliance would break. Congress overtook the INDIA bloc parties and gave secondary treatment to its allies. These allied parties are very strong regional political parties with their own ideologies", Chaudhary said.

"We all have seen the drama that unfolded in Bihar. Mamata Banerjee is challenging Congress, in West Bengal, while in Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav has already shared a few seats with Rashtriya Lok Dal and other local allies. In Punjab, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won the state defeating Congress, thus AAP and Congress' internal conflicts are unavoidable. In fact, Rahul Gandhi's own Lok Sabha seat in Wayanad in Kerala is in danger as the Indian Union Muslim League is demanding their Wayanad seat back from Congress. It seems Congress will get back to its original UPA for Lok Sabha elections", Chaudhary added.

However, some experts also opine that the Yatra will help Congress increase the voter percentage in the country if not coming to power.

Senior political journalist, Ashok Wankhede said, "Although Congress says the yatra is for social justice, but no political parties travel nationwide for only raising issues. The ultimate goal is coming to power. Rahul Gandhi's yatra got massive people's support in the states like Bihar and Jharkhand, but how many of them will cash in votes is the question".

"BJP is a cadre-based party with strong election management, even on booth level, unlike Congress. Rahul Gandhi is creating people's support, it's now with state units how they cash the opportunity", Wankhede added.

Political strategist, Prashant Kishor has been criticising Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra saying 'It is the worst timing to go for a yatra'. "When your battalion is at war, you don't leave the headquarters. L K Advani did not go on a nationwide yatra when elections were two months away. I do not understand the logic behind this yatra", Kishor said speaking with the media.

Kishor added, "Winning elections and creating a public image are two different things".