17 December,2009 08:05 AM IST | | Rahul Bose
As I am writing this piece, Mr Nafi of Sudan is addressing a high-level delegation at the Bella Centre and he is talking on behalf of the G-77 plus China. The Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen has become the president of the conference; he succeeds Connie Hedegaard, who resigned on Wednesday afternoon.
The effort of the new president around a single track has been rejected by the G-77 plus China. They still want the two-track treaty based on the Kyoto Protocol and the long-term climate agreement. There have been discussions till 7 am at the negotiators' level, but they have not yet yielded any result. There doesn't seem any forward movement and the situation looks pretty grim.
I spent a large portion of yesterday and today talking to members of the policy team of Oxfam, and we are tracking the progress on the issue, but the news is that a fair, binding, ambitious decision is not likely. My personal sense is that it's a political battle. It has gone past negotiations and policies. The next two days will see, predictably, a political game of chess.
The question is whether all that was agreed in Bali two years ago will go down the drain u2014 if there is a rehashing of sensible previously agreed stands. It's a fluid situation in which there is a need for greater political will. There should be a sign outside the Bella Centre saying: 'Wanted A leader with courage, will and vision,' but it doesn't seem to be happening right now.
US President Barack Obama is scheduled to come by tomorrow evening or the day after. The best-case scenario is that a consensus will be reached within a political agreement to put in place firm deadlines for a future deal. As of now, the G-77, China, India, South Africa, Brazil and other countries are rightly holding firm, so nothing looks good at this point.
On another level, there were clashes between demonstrators and the police today, with tear gas and truncheons used to effect. More tomorrow from me on the absolutely disastrous management of COP15 and why the Danish government should hang its head in shame.
