For Cong, survival trumps arrogance

The Gandhi siblings have realised that long-term party-building is merely rhetoric; for them, it is short-term survival that is driving their 2019 electoral strategies

One sees much criticism of the Congress party for not getting its act together to fight the BJP in this parliamentary election. The party leadership is called, once again, too arrogant. The party is accused of not cooperating with other non-BJP parties to ensure one-on-one contests in each constituency while the BJP quickly stitched up its 27-strong alliance. The party is accused of giving up the battle and of instead looking to strengthening itself for future elections.

These criticisms are perhaps premature. One reality check will happen today when party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, aka PGV, begins a three-day tour in Eastern UP. She's been criticised for a lackadaisaical approach; her first press conference on February 14 had to be cancelled because of the Pulwama attack, and her only event was in Gujarat last week. Presumably, she has a chance from today to make an impact in the way that her brother, party president Rahul Gandhi, did at Stella Maris College in Chennai last week. Clips from that interaction with young ladies showed only positives: he was relaxed, unafraid of questions (unlike Prime Minister Narendra Modi's scripted interactions; even his response on dyslexia to students seemed less than spontaneous). The Chennai crowd was thrilled as Rahul provided a refreshing counterpoint to Modi's repetitive and tiresome nastiness. The only complaint might be that there are not enough such events - but then the Election Commission has thrust upon us a two-month election, and perhaps the 'dramatis personae' are pacing themselves. How effective PGV is can be gauged by the way Modi responds: he might want to snatch the narrative back with some loud, pointed electioneering.

As for the Congress's delaying of alliances, this is a surface criticism. Political bargaining seems to be happening behind the scenes, as evidenced by the way the alliances in Karnataka and Bihar were sorted out last week. Unlike the BJP's meek allies, the Congress is negotiating with important, equal players. The Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and others are incapable of tough bargaining with BJP chief Amit Shah, for they have no choice; their helplessness is covered by the fig leaf of an extra seat to contest, etc.

In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been complaining about the Congress's uppity attitude in allying against the BJP, which took all seven seats in 2014. It may still happen, though a Congress party worker might wonder what the big deal is: if the AAP has governed Delhi well, then it should not need the Congress's help in taking on the BJP. The Congress's maximalist position thus has its logic.

Much criticism centres around UP. If you read media reports closely, they suggest that the Bahujan Samaj Party's (BSP) Mayawati has been rattled by the PGV's entry into active politics. Mayawati already faces an uphill battle - her dalit vote was splintered in 2014, and with the post-Pulwama airstrike turning national security into an electoral issue in UP, she fears that her partner Samajwadi Party's (SP) voter base will prefer "voting Hindu" than supporting BSP candidates.

In addition, PGV met dalit youth leader Chandrashekhar Azad of the Bhim Army last week, prompting mysterious leaks that he is a BJP creation intended to weaken Mayawati's base. Azad, however, speaks of fighting Modi in Varanasi (though Modi may shift base from there to the holy Puri, Odisha). Some Congress workers are still trying to convince PGV to contest Varanasi. Whoever is finally the candidate, PGV has piqued voter curiosity, as we'll see this week.

Some in the media feel the BJP has already won the battle in UP after the post-Pulwama air strikes. However, it is still early days in the two-month long campaign; the narrative can still change. Incidentally, the Congress last week announced some of its candidates in eastern UP, unusual for the party that used to always wait till the last moment to allot tickets due to dissidence and other pressures. The BJP may still emerge the single largest in UP with 30-35 seats, but the Congress will aim at a modest target of 15 seats. Given UP's 80 seats, that doesn't leave much for the SP or BSP. No wonder the consistent angry stories about the Congress.

Finally, regarding the Congress party's arrogance: It might be true at the institutional level, that after decades of power, senior leaders condescendingly deal with other parties. This might even be true of Rahul and PGV though I doubt it, given the way the two have been making concessions to potential allies. The siblings are certainly aware that if Modi wins and returns, one of his parivar's priorities will be to finish their family. Long-term party-building is merely rhetoric; for them, short-term survival is driving their 2019 electoral strategies. The two know this is no time for arrogance.

Aditya Sinha's latest book, India Unmade: How the Modi Government Broke the Economy, with Yashwant Sinha, is out now. He tweets @autumnshade Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com

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