15 December,2009 12:35 PM IST | | Rahul Bose
On the coldest day yet in Copenhagen, you would have to be seriously hearing impaired if you did not hear the buzz that no deal is going to emerge from COP 15. This buzz comes from everywhere, including the African nations and the island states. The greater likelihood is of a political statement being issued on the 18th, but the collapse of the dealis imminent, barring a miracle.
What is worrying, from my chats with various international activist organisation heads, is that there are some groups that are going to take radical action around the failure of the deal. My personal belief is that any kind of radical action creates the wrong kind of atmosphere and sends out the wrong message. Nothing is ever achieved by radical action because it invariably proves to be counterproductive.
But, back to the conference, since the United States is insisting on a legally binding treaty for all nations, something that's definitely not going to happen in Copenhagen, my feeling is the best case scenario is an agreement that paves the way for the treaty to happen (if all goes well) in Mexico, nine months down the line in July.
If this economic climate of developed nation continues, the chances of 100 billion dollars that was the demand of G77+China for adaptation and another 100 billion for mitigation are very remote. What is going to be made available will most likely be a fraction of this amount. No developed country's leader, beleaguered with the economic downturn, is about to turn to his or her people and say that he has pledged billions to the developing world. The terrible irony is that it is this very money that will save the lives of their children and grandchildren, but when has man ever looked beyond his immediate self-interest?
The best way I can describe the tragedy of this conference is if not now then when? World leaders have had two years to prepare for this the biggest conference on climate change in history. It is also the biggest civil movement against climate change. Never before have 130 world leaders resolved to meet over this issue, and this planet has never needed a deal like this as much as it does now. You and I have never needed a deal like this as much as we do now. But it is not to be. Will we live to fight another day with rekindled hope or let bitterness, mistrust, cynicism and violence take over? It's anybody's guess.
