‘Deft diplomatic hand crucial’

People gather in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on August 5, the day Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had resigned after weeks of unrest. Pic/PTI

Like the rest of the world, Indians are listening to the rising decibel levels of war drums with the Middle East blaze turning into an inferno and an Israel-Iran war ‘imminent'. Amidst this, the Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh-to-Delhi flight threw us for a loop. This will have serious repercussions on South Asia's stability and India's security. India is getting surrounded by States that are pro-China.

Dark days

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We have a very gloomy picture globally. There are several scenarios which point to the fact that if not today or tomorrow, as some predictions go, World War III is never far away. We have the very real possibility of a Taiwan vs China conflict which will affect all in the region at once. Xi Jinping, the Chinese premier, would like to see this happen, there is no doubt about that. Do not take your eyes off this conflict zone, which is becoming more volatile. Remember the Ukraine-Russia war, and that we have 32 NATO countries against Russia and that is roiling the world too.

Israel, Hamas

I come to the Israel-Iran scenario, where it is evident that Israel cannot defend itself alone. It needs support, like from the USA for ammunition which it asked for earlier, as it fought against Hamas. Having said that, one can conclude that Israel has controlled Hamas to a very large extent in this war, to the extent that Hamas cannot invade Israel. It has decimated Hamas, though Israel will not admit that as it needs to control Gaza. Now the attacks will come from Golan Heights and Lebanon, with Israel well poised to counter these.

Hybrid wars

What we are looking at is commonly termed unconventional warfare. I prefer to call it a ‘hybrid war'. This means no one method is being used in these conflicts. We have aerial platforms for war, maritime vessels are seajacked by the Houthis, non-State actors are being used as proxies, proxy wars are being fought. There is the threat of missiles as they fly over different regions. It is a potent mix and that is where the danger lies. One of these ballistic missiles can one day be fitted with a nuclear warhead. North Korea had fired a missile some months ago, which landed outside Japan's exclusive economic zone. It will take one irresponsible act - a missile targeting a city, which will prove to be the spark to the powder keg which is our world right now.

Deft diplomacy

Meanwhile, we cannot overlook the economic aspect. We are seeing the decline of the USA, both economically and militarily. China, in fact, is watching this with a great deal of patience and is now an emerging economic and military superpower.

This brings us to India, which has to play a very deft diplomatic card. By that I mean, there are several balancing acts we must do. We have our friendship with Russia, a country which has suffered a great deal economically in this war. We are prodded time and again by the USA to look at that friendship during this time of the Russia-Ukraine war. Then, we have good relations with both, Israel and Iran. We buy oil from Iran, despite sanctions. We cannot afford to antagonise Iran because of the Chabahar Port, as a counter to Gwadar Port part of the China-Pakistan economic corridor. We just need to be deft, as I said, instead of going around pronouncing to some country or the other to stop war or hostilities.

Need statesmen

What the world needs most are real statesmen, which are absent right now. To some extent, I would agree with Donald Trump who has recognised that the USA will decline economically and proclaimed that, "he will stop the war". Current wars need to stop and bigger conflicts are to be avoided as there are other ‘conflicts' or I could call them ‘problems' that need money and attention like global poverty, health and environmental issues. Yet, for those to be addressed we need global leaders of stature, not the current pygmies and dwarfs behaving like heads of small districts, fighting like mad and pushing our increasingly fragile world to the brink.

As told to Hemal Ashar

Col. Utkarsh Rathore (retd) was commissioned into the Indian Army in 1980. He commanded the 17 Maratha Light Infantry battalion during Operation Parakram, mobilisation of which took place after the Indian Parliament terror attack. Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com