Maharashtra Assembly elections: A problem of plenty

Supriya Sule, Jayant Patil, Devendra Fadnavis, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar

With just 30-40 days to go for the notification of Maharashtra's Assembly elections 2024, state politics has shifted into top gear. The speed had slowed down a bit after the Lok Sabha elections, but kept a constant pace. Rival sides have been recalibrating things, considering that the Assembly polls will be different from the Parliamentary elections. NDA was left far behind by the MVA in the summer.

The Opposition bloc hopes to translate the Lok Sabha figures into the Assembly majority to install its government this winter. But a dispute seems to have arisen over the projection of the face for the CM's post though it will depend on the post-result strength of the respective partners. Of MVA, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has been projecting ex-CM Uddhav Thackeray as the natural choice that could pull votes.

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The Congress has no such compulsion, though local supporters have been displaying their loyalty by displaying some senior leaders as the next CM. In Congress, the high command takes a call whenever it is in a position to install its CM. In NCP (Sharad Pawar), the choice could be between Supriya Sule and Jayant Patil, say observers.

NDA's two partners - Shiv Sena and NCP (AP) - are very clear about their CM candidates. There's no dispute over Eknath Shinde in the Sena, and in NCP, over Ajit Pawar, who has been harbouring a dream of leading the state one day. Ajit has been a deputy CM multiple times, and he aspires to break the jinx that no deputy CM has been able to make it to the highest office in the state. Ajit's image makeover exercise is in full swing as he has been touring the state these days.

Interestingly, there is another candidate - former CM and now deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis - who, too, will have to break the jinx. Fadnavis was in the CM's office for a full five-year term, a feat only two in Maharashtra achieved (the first-one was Vasantrao Naik:1967-72). That followed a brief stay in the CM's office post the 2019 elections, and then came the deputy CM assignment under Eknath Shinde. Though he remains the state BJP's number one leader ahead of the Assembly elections, talk of Fadnavis going national either within the organisation or in the Union ministry has never ceased. People in the party say that the ex-CM's fate will depend on the outcome of the state elections, for which he is leaving no stone unturned to make BJP the single largest party for the third consecutive time. As of now, one of the BJP's priorities seems to be pacifying its own cadre and the RSS's supporting squad that was upset by the party's alliance with Ajit Pawar. It is said that the matter was discussed at the RSS meet in Nagpur last weekend, and somehow sorted out.

Overall, the coming elections will be a contest not only between Opposite camps but also within the two main alliances. The contest will be complicated further if the third front of smaller parties comes up, and the Maratha activist Manoj Jarange fields his candidate. Independents are expected to be in abundance this time, because major parties will not be able to give tickets to all aspirants. There are only 288 seats to be shared by three each in the NDA and MVA.

Obviously, the first hurdle is seat-sharing. All parties have seen in the Lok Sabha polls what happens if seat-sharing is delayed, and how unilateral fielding of candidates affects the end result. In MVA, the state Congress had convinced its high command to have local leaders actively participate in the seat-sharing process. Yet, they fear that some alliance partners will use their good offices to get what they want. No wonder then that state Congress leaders were sceptical about Uddhav Thackeray's recent tour of New Delhi. Scepticism rules the BJP camp as well and the factors that raise doubts are not just about seat-sharing.