Sena war in next battle but not yet decisive

As it froze the ‘bow and arrow’ symbol and prevented the use of the official name Shiv Sena, the EC has allowed the factions to pick new names that can have linkage with their parent party. Pic/Rane Ashish

What's in a name? That which we call a rose/by any other name would smell as sweet," Juliet tells Romeo in a bid to pledge her love and convince him that the name and the family it comes from don't matter much. In this piece, we aren't talking about two people deeply in love, but about the Shiv Sena splinters, bad blood separating them. Led respectively by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, the name ‘Shiv Sena' and the family it comes from matter most when the two will go to the voters, more so in the wake of the Election Commission's decision to freeze the party's ‘bow and arrow' symbol and prevent the use of the official name Shiv Sena, with a concession that the new names can have linkage with their parent party.

One of the faction heads is a direct descendent - a political heir appointed by the father who happened to be the founder of Shiv Sena, while the other is a majority MLA/MP-proclaimed inheritor of the founder's ideology. Both are vying for their piece of the pie, and have been painting a rosy picture for their respective supporters. After the Election Commission's interim order that "the factions shall be known by such names as they may choose for their respective groups, including, if they so desire, linkage with their parent party", the action has boiled down to picking the names that could appeal to the voters. Thackeray must pick one immediately and get it approved by the EC because he will be setting up his candidate in the November 3 Andheri Assembly bypoll. Whatever names they officially choose for the commission's approval, the factions have already been branded unofficially as Uddhav Sena and Shinde Sena. Let's see who gets more innovative and appealing in their new branding.

The EC order further says: "Both the groups shall also be allotted such different symbols as they may choose from the list of free symbols notified by the Election Commission for the purposes of the current bye-elections". The factions have been asked to approach the commission on Monday. Will Shinde also pick a symbol even when he does not intend to contest the bypoll?

Amid talks of symbol allotment, a question pops up. Will reaching out with a new election symbol be so tedious in modern times such as these? The country's electoral history says that the parties which were allotted new symbols after the split returned with a great gain. But that gain was a result of hard work that took the party's popularity to its zenith in that particular election.

One of these parties, the Congress, went down after reaching a peak, while the other, the BJP, moved up gradually from two seats in Lok Sabha to over 300 in the same period. The Congress fought its splinters and mainstream parties. Thackeray's regional party finds itself in the same situation. It faces the BJP and Shinde Sena. Thackeray's first test will be the Andheri bypoll, and if the matter is not settled in his favour, which according to the previous instances is most likely, he will have to contest the local body polls, including Mumbai's, without ‘bow and arrow'. The positive side will be that the new symbol would be in great circulation by then and should help the ex-CM. On the other hand, if we assume that it doesn't contest the bypoll and delays picking a new symbol, Shinde Sena will be lagging behind in branding. We will have to wait to know what Shinde will do immediately in the EC to stop Thackeray Sena in its new tracks. He may compensate for the lag, if any, by a publicity blitzkrieg in the later stages. Shinde Sena has proved on Dussehra that it has learnt to create an event out of anything.

While the two Senas are warring with all their might, the BJP is at the receiving end from Thackeray supporters, the MVA partners included. Shinde's ruling partner is portrayed as a villain and accused of attempting to finish the Thackeray Sena. If the BJP contests the bypoll - in fact, it started campaigning much before - the opponents will be using the accusation as a poll plank to attract sympathy votes for a candidate, most likely the widow of a deceased MLA. The plank is expected to be intensified as time passes and more polls are held. For the record, Shinde has completed over 100 days in the CM's office which released a list of major decisions he has taken. The decisions will be examined for their fruitfulness over the coming days. For now, Shinde has emerged as a head of state who is increasingly engaged in politics of survival and supremacy.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com