25 October,2021 07:02 AM IST | Mumbai | Ian Chappell
Scotland’s players interact during their win over Bangladesh in a T20 World Cup match at the Oman Cricket Academy ground on October 17 in Muscat. Pic/Getty Images
In Test cricket, it may look like a major upset is about to occur but it rarely eventuates. Ireland appeared on the verge of the upset of the century when they dismantled the England batting line-up for 85 at Lord's in 2019. Despite holding a first innings lead of 122 the Irish batting folded like a paper aeroplane in the second innings to be all out for a paltry 38.
We've just had another reminder that major upsets occur regularly in T20 World Cup tournaments. In 2009 at Lord's, England suffered a calamitous defeat at the hands of the Netherlands which led to the home side missing the semi-finals.
There have been other upsets - not of the same magnitude as England's loss - but still embarrassing for the major nation. Then, there are the exciting near misses where the minnows appear to be on track to upsetting a major nation but eventually normality prevails.
One such occasion (also in 2009) was an enthralling battle between Sri Lanka and Ireland at Lord's. The fighting Irish looked to be in position to upset Sri Lanka when they held their opponents to 144. An upset came even more into focus when Ireland compiled a productive opening partnership of 59 after just nine overs.
At this stage, I was sitting in the Lord's press box among a group of animated Irish journalists. "Should be a big party tonight," I said, "if Ireland win." Without even turning his head one journalist replied with typical Irish humour;
Of the minor countries who have performed reasonably regularly in T20 World Cups the Netherlands and Scotland have won a third of their matches. In general, this is as a result of winning games they should have against other minor nations.
The two latest nations to acquire Test status - Afghanistan and Ireland - have performed creditably, respectively winning 35 and 25 per cent of their T20 World Cup matches. That compares favourably with an often-threatening-but-rarely-producing Bangladesh, who languish at just 22 per cent.
The inclusion of minor cricket nations (there were five in the current tournament) can lead to some club standard cricket. Nevertheless it's a worthwhile exercise to encourage these countries through the T20 format. It's a bit like the early rounds of English football's FA Cup where occasionally the part-timers upset the highly paid professionals and a township celebrates wildly.
However, when the dust settles and the ambition has been doused it'll be four major nations who survive the cut and thrust to reach the semi-finals of this year's tournament. In a format where a quickfire 20 which includes a couple of biffed sixes or a brief but accurate two over spell can change the course of a match, predicting semi-finalists is fraught with danger. Adding to the uncertainty, this tournament is being held in a part of the world where many of the major nations are unfamiliar with the conditions.
Logic would say that the venue favours the highly unpredictable Pakistan who, for most of the previous decade, used the UAE as it's âhome' turf. Also, players who participated in the second half of the re-arranged IPL will benefit from the tournament's shift to the UAE and that makes India a big beneficiary.
In Group 2, the most likely semi-finalists are India and Pakistan with the biggest danger being New Zealand. Group 1, where Australia, England, South Africa and West Indies all reside, is much more difficult to predict. Utilising the pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey method, I favour England and West Indies to qualify from this group, but I do so with little conviction. And that's the beauty of the T20 World Cup; it's a lottery.
