You’ll face unexpected setbacks today

Humans are survivors because we’ve become rather good at making predictions based on sketchy data. Astrology is at least older than meteorology. Show some respect.

At age 21, I became the unofficial astrology editor of JS, the youth magazine I worked for. Every week, the mail would bring in a syndicated weekly astrology forecast from King Features in London.

In sweeping strokes, they would doom all Arians to unexpected setbacks at work. Virgos would be put on high alert for a surprise meeting with an attractive stranger who might or might not completely change their life. Capricorns would be told to wear blue for luck, except on Thursday, when just staying home was highly recommended.

I thought astrology was a crock of ordure, so I amused myself by switching forecasts around. Arians would be assigned the colour blue, Capricorns would get the attractive stranger and unexpected setbacks at work would go to Virgos.

In five years of toying with readers' lives, I have received not even one letter of complaint. So you might be surprised to learn that I believe, and not even all that secretly, that there is something to astrology. Maybe this is why I don't get invited to parties any more.

Let's break it down, shall we? Astrology claims to tell you your future; and it insists that really far away stars and planets somehow affect your temperament, behaviour, relationships and fortunes.

Outrageous! How could the star Aldebaran in the constellation Taurus, 65 light years away from earth, decide that I am to be a patient, plodding, loyal and bull-headed human being or that I might get a raise today?

First, about predicting the future. By any chance, do you find anything odd about someone trying to predict the weather? There's a giant global industry built around it and people take weather forecasts quite seriously. But there's nothing even slightly exact about meteorology. Category 5 cyclones routinely whimper out and monsoons routinely arrive too early or too late, taking everyone by surprise. Meteorology deals with probabilities, not facts. Hmmm. So does astrology.

The insurance industry - there's another occult science for you. They fix your premium by predicting how long you'll live. Just like palmists do. But they're right about as often as they're wrong. You can't predict being run over by a bus.

What about DNA mapping? Enough people are willing to put good money into having their unborn baby's genes mapped to predict future diseases. I, meanwhile, look at the stars in the sky above, and predict minor cuts and wounds for you this week because Mars is retrograde.

Then there's predicting the movement of stocks and shares? I know some who have lost their life's savings based on someone's hunch about where gold was going.

How about distant objects affecting things on earth? That's easy - twice a day, a really distant object called the moon makes the sea rise and fall, sloshing like water in a bucket. An even more distant object called the sun somehow changes the skin colour of bikini-clad Americans lying on some beach in Florida.

For the last 50 years, people have believed that a saturated fats diet will cause heart disease, though no one has yet proven that one causes the other. Why is this more scientific than famous statistician Michel Gauquelin claiming that eminent athletes all had Mars low on the horizon when they were born?

Humans are survivors because over thousands of years we've become rather good at making predictions based on sketchy, patchy, imperfect data. Astrology is at least older than meteorology. Show some respect.

As ex officio astrology editor, I would ask readers (whenever I met one) what they thought of the magazine's weekly astrology forecasts. The replies were always unfailingly effusive. Back then, no one said OMG, so I'd hear things like, "By gum, they're so accurate! And the personality descriptions - they talk to me. They're so detailed and precise."

After I'd heard enough people sing their praises of astrology, I started digging. Why did people invariably find forecasts accurate even knowing that they were generic? Turns out there's a term that describes this little act of self-deception - the Forer Effect. It's named after the psychologist Bertram Forer, who figured out that people readily agreed with vague descriptions about themselves - "Sometimes you are a little too self-critical" or "You are a people person but sometimes you like a little me time".

To test his theory, Forer distributed a random personality description to his psychology students. Everyone got the exact same description - and everyone thought it was remarkably accurate. The Forer Effect works especially well with positive statements, since people like to think well of themselves.

Here's my forecast for you today - you will find yourself questioning things you've taken for granted all your life. Something you read might get you all worked up. You might get into an argument with close friends.

Finally, you'll go down to Matunga and have some hot filter coffee.

Here, viewed from there. C Y Gopinath, in Bangkok, throws unique light and shadows on Mumbai, the city that raised him. You can reach him at cygopi@gmail.com
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