15 March,2009 07:24 AM IST | | Nik Gowing
Where is Africa placed in the global economic crisis? There are no clear answers
IT'S bankrupt, dude!"
Bob Geldof meant the world. The distinctive Irish voice of the rock singer and campaigner against poverty in Africa boomed across an emptying official lunch.
Geldof held court over the un-cleared plates in the spanking new Bank of Tanzania building in downtown Dar Es Salaam. He wore what he called his crumpled "Julius Nyerere suit". It is a cross between a safari suit and Chinese peasant.
Nyerere was the renowned father of modern day Tanzania, which by African standards has become a remarkable economic success in the last three years.
Geldof is exasperated, and as usual he does not hide it. All that is missing are the frequent expletives he can be renowned for.
The global financial collapse is fast destroying all hopes of maintaining the African economic take-off that was on course to lift tens of millions out of poverty.
The decision by rich countries to write off much of Africa's debt has removed the financial manacles from many nations. As hoped, a new breed of enlightened leaders has been transforming the relief from servicing colossal debts into new investment and a vitalising of the economy.u00a0u00a0u00a0u00a0
Now the unprecedented per capita growth rates of two to seven per cent are under threat.
Throughout its opening morning, this special African meeting of the International Monetary Fund has heard dire warnings about the economic cliff African nations are falling off.
The IMF's managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned the ministers and central bankers of the world's "Great Recession". He seemed to stop one step short of using the word 'depression'.
On growth there will be "the worst performance in most of our lifetimes", with a grave risk of "civil unrest".
Strauss-Kahn even dares to warn that "war" might return to Africa just at the moment that armed conflict seemed to be eliminated as an assumed way of life.
The former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan is equally sombre. Even his own nation Ghana another new African success story u2014 cannot escape the loomingu00a0 "perfect storm of insecurity, instability and personal misery" with a resulting "extraordinary human vulnerability".
The globalised economy that brought Africa new hope has created the economic equivalent of a tsunami, with potentially catastrophic impact, said Annan.
Economic tsunami? The last time I heard such a dire prediction was from a Chinese businessman at a conference in China last September. Few wanted to hear his alert about a country which only seemed to know vibrant growth rates of at least 11 per cent.
The Chinese who heard that warning were in a state of denial. They refused to believe it. But the economic Tsunami hit China 90 days later, just as he predicted.
Now tens of thousands of Chinese factories have shut, at least 20 million migrant workers have no work, and the economy is in a tail spin.
Africa is now being warned to expect the same implosion imminently because of what the IMF calls a "third wave" of global collapse that is about to hit.
Tanzania's President Jakaya Kikwete, who has masterminded Tanzania's macroeconomic transformation, leads Africa's fury.
Had Africa been responsible for prompting the global economic crisis through financial mismanagement "the IMF would have jumped on us".
The President hit a raw spot. The ministers and central bankers erupted in applause and even a few cheers.
Why is Africa a whole continent represented by only South Africa at the G20 summit in London in three weeks?
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Do the other 52 nations not deserve a voice to match those of India, Brazil or Indonesia?
All of Africa must be represented in the global architecture, said Kikwete. "It is not good enough being occasional guests at exclusive club meetings".
Professor Jeffrey Sachs, the ever-passionate campaigner to save Africa, expressed equal anger.
African nations need a total of just $35 billion to save their growing record of economic success. So get things into perspective. Africa needs the equivalent of the amount of government money used to save just one near insolvent bank. Just one!
The mood was bleak, very bleak.
But I did discover two voices of optimism.
In his 7th floor hotel suite overlooking Dar Es Salaam's container port, I met the millionaire Kenyan businessman Naushad Merali.
Four generations earlier Mr Merali's great great grandparents moved from India to Africa. Now he chairs the Sameer Group, an enormous portfolio of companies.
As we nibbled cashew nuts and grapes, he told me he is down on some businesses and up on others. But "I am not complaining overall".
So what drives this increasingly rare optimism?
Mr Merali has just led investment in an undersea fibre optic cable connecting East Africa to Oman in the Gulf. He tells me that in a few months it will reduce the cost of the continent's global IT connectivity by 97 per cent.
"Watch out," he told me. "East Africa will be connected".
His ambition is to challenge India's dominance in off shore call centres for global corporates. He wants to grab India's business. Back in Nairobi off the road to the airport the first centres are ready to go.
Despite the downturn in India's call centre fortunes, Mr Merali believes he will create 600,000 to a million new jobs.
Overall he says the economic downward spiral is a new opportunity to buy up cheap companies and prepare for the upturn. "I am a buyer when things are bad. If any companies want to sell off (their interests) in East Africa, then contact me!"
So are you buoyant, I ask? "Yes I am buoyant".
And so are others, he tells me. Cash rich corporations and investment funds are prowling Africa looking for good value acquisitions.
In the Bank of Tanzania tower block next door, I meet the governor Benno Ndulu in his 15th floor, wood-panelled suite. He has ensured the banking financial conditions exist for President Kikwete's economic liberalisation to work.
Yes. Africa faces a major shock. But it will be a "reversible shock".
It is, though, a lone voice.
The other "dudes" like Geldof and Sachs, along with the IMF bankers and ministers are not that hopeful. Quite the opposite. Africa faces grim times again.u00a0
'World News Today with Nik Gowing' is on BBC World News on weekday evenings at 2130
