After long delay, monsoon to finally set over Mumbai

A pre-monsoon shower lashes Fort on June 13. Pic/Sameer Markande

Delayed by Cyclone Biparjoy, the monsoon will set over the city in the next 48 hours, meteorologists have predicted. Although scattered rains will be witnessed from June 24, the monsoon is likely to advance in the city and adjoining areas the following day. June 28, 1974, holds the record for the latest arrival of the monsoon ever since it was recorded. The rainy season began on June 25 in 1959 and 2019 respectively.

"Since the westerly winds have grown stronger, the amount of rain will start to increase in a day or two. In Mumbai, rains will begin in two days. After that, rain activities will also pick up in Maharashtra's interiors," said an India Meteorological Department (IMD) official. The IMD has predicted moderate rainfall (green alert) from June 23 to June 25, following which the downpour will intensify. "The scattered rains on Friday in some of the areas in the city were pre-monsoon showers. Heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely on June 26 and June 27," Sushma Nair, a scientist with India Meteorological Department's (IMD) regional centre at Colaba, said.

Mumbaikars are lashed by a pre-monsoon shower at Fort on June 13. Pic/Sameer Markande

Talking about the likely onset of monsoon over Mumbai, climatologist Rajesh Kapadia from the private blog Vagaries of the Weather said, "Monsoon winds are regaining the required strength gradually, thanks to the fizzling of Cyclone Biparjoy, leading to the seasonal offshore trough gaining moisture along the west coast and heralding the monsoon over North Konkan, including Mumbai and South Gujarat, from June 25. In the next seven days we are likely to witness good rain over these regions." According to the blog, the monsoon will advance into Mumbai on June 25.

Relief around the corner

Kapadia stated, "While we will see rain activities on June 24, gradually rain frequency will be increasing by June 25." Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather, a private weather forecasting agency, said, "The westerly winds have strengthened, so rain activity will start increasing in the next 48 hours and the monsoon will make its onset over Mumbai and adjoining areas."

The average rainfall for Mumbai in June is 526.3 mm but only 17 mm of rain has been recorded in the city as of June 22. "Even as there will be relief from ongoing hot and sultry weather conditions, Mumbai will not be able to cover the deficit in the next week," a Skymet Weather meteorologist said.

Skymet Weather meteorologists further stated, "Moderate to heavy rain with isolated very heavy spells are possible over Vidarbha as well. Places such as Nagpur, Akola, Amravati, Washim, Bhandara and Gondia may witness intense spells of rain during the week. Parts of Marathwada may also receive good rain. However, rain activities over North Central Maharashtra may not be heavy. Districts like Jalgaon, Nashik, Malegaon, Aurangabad and Ahmednagar may receive light scattered rain."

Localised flooding feared

"Rain activities will continue over Mumbai as well as the coastal districts of Maharashtra until the end of June. There may be a few intense spells of rain which may lead to waterlogging in low-lying areas. But we do not expect widespread flooding and very heavy downpours," Skymet Weather predicted on its website. Kapadia said, "Heavy rain on June 27 and June 28 could result in the accumulation of more than 100 mm in the two days. There is a possibility of localised flooding in vulnerable locations."