COVID-19: Cases in Mumbai doubled in the last 30 days

A health care worker collects a swab sample at Topiwala Municipal Maternity Home, in Goregaon. File pic

Even though the total number of COVID-19 cases reported over the past 30 days is twice what the city saw in a month before that, data shows that the number of critical patients has barely seen a rise and the death rate too has reduced. While the threat of a lockdown still looms over the city, experts and administrative officials are of the opinion that the situation is still under control, but could take no time turning serious if people do not follow rules.

The city had reported about 14,000 cases from January 12 to February 11. The tally increased to 30,000 from February 12 to March 13, almost a 213 per cent jump. In some areas - Andheri West, Mulund and Borivli - the rate of increase is much higher and these wards have been reporting more than 100 cases daily. Even though the daily tests in the same period increased from 15,000 to 19,000, the average test positivity rate (TPR) in the last 30 days also increased to 5.2 per cent from 3.1 per cent.Although the situation is worrisome, there have been some positive developments as well. The number of symptomatic cases and hospitalisations are still on the lower side and less compared to the previous months. On January 12, the number of active cases was 7,390, out of which 427 were critical. About 75 per cent of the beds were available. On February 11, the number of active patients was 5,252, out of which 284 were critical. On March 13, the number of active patients increased to 13,247 with 451 critical ones and bed availability of 60 per cent.

"We advise mildly symptomatic patients from the vulnerable groups to get hospitalised so that they get early treatment. This has increased the number of hospitalisations but the number of critical patients is still on the lesser side," said Dr Vilas Mohokar, medical health officer of S ward, comprising Bhandup.

"In Dharavi, out of 530 active patients, 311 are under home isolation, 122 are under institutional isolation and 82 are hospitalised. The percentage of hospitalisations is 15," said Kiran Dighavkar, assistant commissioner of G north ward, comprising Dadar, Mahim and Dharavi.

Dr Pradip Awate, head of the epidemiology cell of the state health department told mid-day, "The city needs more surveillance rather than another lockdown. More testing and isolation of positive patients will be useful. Identification of cases through fever clinics, tracing of high-risk contacts and strict isolation of positive cases either in containment zones or in sealed buildings are required." He added, "Lockdown helped in strengthening the health care facilities in the earlier months of the pandemic. Now the health system is in place and the administration has experience regarding increasing the number of beds when required."

Speaking to mid-day, Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner of the BMC said that even though the situation was under control, if people do not follow the COVID-19 protocols, then it might turn serious.

"We are penalising approximately 25,000 people daily for not wearing masks, which is not an admirable thing. The BMC can't go into each house to see how many people are partying or whether citizens are wearing masks or not. Though the administration is doing its duty, people really have to self-regulate if we want to get out of this situation," Kakani added. "Cases are increasing as people are not following social distancing norms. But at the same time, due to early hospitalisation and treatment, the death rate is still on the lower side," he said.

213%
Jump in cases over the past 30 days

5.2%
Mumbai's monthly average test positivity rate