Economy will be hit, but Maharashtra had no option

A crowd at Juhu beach on Sunday despite rising COVID-19 cases. Pic/Anurag Ahire

Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray knew that imposing a blanket lockdown wouldn't be wise - politically and economically. So, he chose to convince all stakeholders before imposing strict curbs in order to contain the sharp rise in cases. His approach served some important purposes. He safeguarded himself against criticism that PM Narendra Modi faced for imposing a lockdown last year.

Thackeray issued a caution last week itself, telling citizens to cooperate or face a lockdown. The warning evoked an adverse reaction, but the state had to find a way to control increasing infection. In his group interactions, the CM bluntly posed a question to the leaders from commercial/industrial sectors and opinion makers in media if they could suggest any better alternative to a blanket lockdown or lockdown-like measure. Since there was hardly any convincing answer, the CM opted to impose curbs on weekdays and a blanket lockdown on week-end. The decision pleased the coalition partners who didn't want a blanket lockdown. Thackeray called up opposition leaders Devendra Fadnavis and his cousin Raj Thackeray, seeking their cooperation once curbs were imposed.

‘Fear replaced by carelessness'

We can say the CM is politically correct in his approach and we can hope that he achieves desirable results only if the administration and the citizens collaborate with each other. The saving grace is that the citizens have been allowed activities, especially essential for uninterrupted earning. Considering the curbs, it appears that it wouldn't be as tough as last year's lockdown. The learning we had last year should teach us in helping save lives. The priority is to break the chain of infection. We have to think of the curbs medically rather than as curb on our personal freedom, which unfortunately was misused after the restrictions were eased. It is a sad commentary on our personal conduct when we flout protocols. We refuse to follow basic guidelines of wearing masks and maintaining social distancing. Indeed, the fear of virus that once ruled our mind space has been replaced by carelessness.

When experts analyse the unforeseen spike, besides blaming callous citizenry, they also hold the administration responsible for being complacent in the months that saw easing of the previous restrictions. Now, the same state machinery is under tremendous pressure because of the projections of shortfall in beds and healthcare workforce if the spike is not arrested. The worrisome projections are for the next 15 days which are expected to see the COVID graph going higher and higher. With this, the opposition has got a reason to ask the government to mend its ways and make more financial provision for pandemic mitigation, instead of blaming the Centre for everything bad that happens to Maharashtra. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the people in the state government don't stop arguing over the state-Centre relationship. It is time the state and Centre worked together to save Maharashtra from imminent disaster, because it is a state that contributes significantly to the country's growth.

‘Losses may not be as severe as 2020'

A mini-lockdown, as it is described here in Maharashtra, would definitely impact the economy, though the degree of losses may not be as severe as 2020. While some sectors would be shut entirely because they attract crowds, some have been allowed to run. Construction work won't be stopped if the workers stay on the site. Industry and manufacturing will go uninterrupted but under certain guidelines. The day time curfew will minimise the number of commuters, thus impacting the taxi and rickshaw business which has been allowed. Work from home will be encouraged in private offices.

Restaurants/bars will be able to do some business if they aren't forced to shut their kitchens despite being permitted take away counters. The judicious implementation of relaxations and curbs will be most welcome. Operating vegetable/grain markets with strict compliance of protocol should pose a greater challenge to the administration as well as to citizens who believe in following guidelines. Shutting of small scale businesses like salon and beauty parlours will result in wage losses for the period specified. Suburban trains and buses will not have passengers standing. Regulations will be possible on the bus, but will they be easy to implement on the train? Hopefully, the reduced number of commuters in view of the closed offices should help achieve crowd-control on suburban trains.

What if strict measures to be implemented till April 30 fail to give us a desired clinical result? The answer will be difficult. But it will reaffirm the opinion that lockdowns/mini-lockdowns don't work.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore. Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com