26 October,2022 06:53 AM IST | Mumbai | Ian Chappell
Quinton de Kock of South Africa celebrates after reaching his 50 during the third T20 International against India at the Holkar Stadium in Indore on October 4. Pic/Getty Images
There's the likelihood of more surprises as the major section of the T20 World Cup is now underway. The unpredictable and dire weather that Australia has recently been experiencing also has to be a factor.
Australia are the defending T20 World Cup champions and they along with India, England and Pakistan are the most likely candidates to reach the semi-final stage. However it's worth remembering the tendency for upsets while also considering the longer boundaries and bouncy Australian pitches.
The successful team needs to exploit not only the extra bounce but encourage opponents to hit to the longer boundaries. In searching for a likely winner concentrate on balanced pace attacks that contain wicket-taking spinners in a team that compiles viable totals.
Not just because they are defending their crown at home but Australia also have the ingredients for success in their own country. Their batting is long and explosive and the bowling covers all bases. Nevertheless, Aaron Finch's unreliable form as a player and how well they field will affect Australia's progress. If those performances are acceptable then a place in the final is well within Australia's grasp.
India has a huge battle on the bouncy Perth pitch against South Africa on October 30 and that is the Proteas best chance to unsettle one of the favourites in that group. Pakistan is fortunate to play South Africa on the more spin friendly Sydney Cricket Ground and the result of those matches could decide the balance of power in that division.
While India has a strong playing group, they also benefit from performing in a highly competitive IPL tournament. A series of practice matches in Australia should have given India the opportunity to acclimatise to local conditions.
The loss of Jasprit Bumrah is unfortunate but his replacement Mohammad Shami is a good bowler. If Shami receives a reasonable share of T20 luck then Bumrah's loss won't be too heavily felt.
India's batting fortunes are more evenly shared and the brilliant form of Suryakumar Yadav obviates any reliance on Virat Kohli. The success or otherwise of their spinners and whether Hardik Pandya can clear the longer boundaries will play an important role for India.
Pakistan doesn't possess many superstar names but they have a solid squad. Their progress will depend heavily on the consistent opening partnership of Babar Azam and the aggressive Mohammad Rizwan. They also need opening bowler Shaheen Shah Afridi to be fully fit and performing well.
If Afridi is in top form Pakistan has the bowling combination to fully test India. Their progress will come down to Pakistan's batting consistency, fielding and there often suspect cohesion.
Despite some major injury woes England has chosen sensibly by including a number of successful BBL players. No matter what sort of disturbance Alex Hales character causes, his was a practical choice considering his previous success in Australia.
Fielding and the ability to cope with Australian conditions will be important but England has the talent to sneak past New Zealand in their group and qualify for the semi-finals.
The T20 formula suggests South Africa could be a surprise outfit but their batting and previous World Cup history is dire. If Quinton de Kock has an outstanding tournament and carries the batting then the Proteas excellent bowling will give them
a chance.
And therein lies one of the frailties of T20 cricket; in a short game one individual can have an unnatural effect on the overall result.
That helps make choosing a winner difficult but talent says an Australia v India final is likely. Nevertheless, beware of the tournament-altering upset.
Sydney-based former Australia captain Ian Chappell is one of the most influential voices in the game
The views expressed in this column are the individual's and don't represent those of the paper
