India's fertility rate likely to fall to 1.3 in 2050: Study

Indias fertility rate dropped from nearly 62 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021 and is projected to fall further to 129 and 104 in 2050 and 2100 respectively according to a new global research published in The Lancet journalThese numbers were found to be in line with global trends where the Total Fertility Rate TFR was over 48 children per woman in 1950 and fell to 22 children per woman in 2021 These figures have been projected to fall to 18 and 16 in 2050 and 2100 respectively The study found that there were 129 crore live births the world over in 2021 an increase from roughly 93 crore in 1950 but a decline from the peak of 142 crore in 2016In India there were more than 16 crore and over 22 crore live births in 1950 and 2021 The number is projected to fall to 13 crore in 2050 However even as much of the planet contends with the challenges of low fertility many lowincome countries will still be facing high fertility issues during the 21st century said the researchers from the Global Burden of Disease GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting CollaboratorsThe high fertility in these lowincome regions particularly in some countries and territories in western and eastern subSaharan Africa will result in a demographically divided world they saidThe majority of children will be born in some of the poorest regions in the world with lowincome countries share in the global live births almost doubling from 18 per cent to 35 per cent from 2021 to 2100 the researchers projectedFurther with the worsening climate change many of these highfertility lowincome countries are expected to also experience more frequent floods droughts and extreme heat all of which threaten food water and resource security along with dramatically raising the risk of heatrelated illnesses and death they saidAs population across the globe ages the researchers latest findings on fertility will have profound effects on economies geopolitics food security health and the environment with a clear demographic divide between the effects experienced by middletohighincome versus lowincome regions they saidUnless governments identify unforeseen innovations or funds addressing the challenges of an ageing population this demographic shift will increasingly stress the national health insurance social security programmes and healthcare infrastructure the team saidThey also acknowledged that while a sustained decline in world population may present opportunities for environmental progress by lowering strain on resources and carbon emissions an increasing consumption per capita due to economic development could offset these benefitsFor limiting the concentration of live births in these highfertility lowincome regions the researchers suggested improving womens access to education and contraceptives the two main drivers of fertility according to themEven as fertility is declining globally the researchers projected considerably steeper fertility declines in the next several decades in the subSaharan Africa through rapid scaleup of education and contraceptive accessThe GBD study is the largest and most comprehensive effort to quantify health loss across places and over time according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation IHME University of Washington UW US which coordinates itPoonam Muttreja Executive Director of Population Foundation of India PFI a nonprofit organisation promoting gendersensitive population and health policymaking said the findings have profound implications for India and includes challenges such as an aging population labour force shortages and potential social imbalances due to gender preferencesWhile these challenges are still a few decades away for India we need to start acting now with a comprehensive approach for the future Muttreja said in a statementEconomic policies stimulating growth and job creation alongside social security and pension reforms will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates said MuttrejaThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever