Study shows size, severity of chikungunya outbreaks unpredictable

The size and severity of chikungunya outbreaks a mosquitoborne disease is unpredictable according to a studyThe virus common in tropical and subtropical regions including Asia Africa and South America leads to symptoms such as acute fever followed by debilitating joint pain that can last for monthsThough rarely fatal the chikungunya virus can be particularly severe for highrisk individuals including newborns and older adultsIn a new study published in Science Advances researchers at the University of Notre Dame US analysed more than 80 outbreaks of chikungunya virus to improve the prediction of future outbreaks and inform vaccine trial developmentChikungunya outbreaks are unpredictable in both size and severity said Alex Perkins Professor of infectious disease epidemiology in the Department of Biological SciencesYou can have one outbreak that infects just a few people and another in a similar setting that infects tens of thousands That unpredictability is what makes public health planning and vaccine development so difficult Perkins addedFor the study the team reconstructed and analysed 86 chikungunya outbreaks creating the largest comparative dataset of its kindChikungunya was first identified in the 1950s Outbreaks have become increasingly frequent and widespread but theyre also sporadic and difficult to predict posing a challenge to public health officials when it comes to planning for and preventing infectionsChanges in outbreaks of chikungunya transmitted by bites from infected mosquitoes Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus are the primary vectors and other mosquitoborne illnesses are often considered in relation to climate change as warmer more humid conditions can promote mosquito activityBut Perkins noted that the study showed that climate isnt necessarily the most important factor when trying to predict the severity of an outbreak of disease caused by a virus like chikungunyaClimate factors like temperature and rainfall can tell us where outbreaks are possible but this study shows that they dont help very much in predicting how severe they will be he said Local conditions matter things like housing quality mosquito density and how communities respond Some variation is simply due to chance That randomness is part of the story too the expert addedThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever