Experts analyse why MVA surged in Maharashtra as BJP faltered

The electrifying electoral battle culminated on June 4 with Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 which defied the exit poll predictions and sent waves of shock across the nation While the Bhartiya Janata Party BJP failed to achieve its target of getting 400 seats the oppositionrsquos INDIA bloc managed to grab more seats than anticipatedA similar scenario emerged from Maharashtra where the Maha Vikas Aghadi MVA which many did not believe could survive the polls managed to bag 30 seats while the ruling Mahayuti won only 17 seatsThe Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 in Maharashtra has boosted the morale of MVA comprising Shiv Sena UBT Congress and Nationalist Congress Party Sharadchandra Pawar While Mahayutimdashcomprising of BJP Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde faction and Nationalist Congress Party Ajit Pawar factionmdashis mulling over the lapses in their poll campaigningBreakdown of Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 in MaharashtraThe BJP suffered a significant blow in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections losing more than half of its seats in 2019 In contrast the opposition MVA which included the Congress Shiv Sena UBT and NCP Sharad Pawar fared well capturing 30 out of 48 seatsThe BJPled NDA fell far short of its target of gaining more than 45 seats in Maharashtra winning only 17 The BJP won only nine seats in the state compared to 23 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections Its ally the Shiv Sena got seven seats while the Ajit Pawarled NCP received oneAlso Read India General Elections 2024 Role of celebrities in Indias electoral battlesThe Congress achieved huge gains obtaining 13 seats up from only one in 2019 Shiv Sena UBT and the NCP Sharad Pawar both won nine seats Vishal Patil a former Congressman who campaigned alone won the Sangli seat He has stated that he will obey whatever decision the Congress makes regarding his rejoining the party If he rejoins the MVAs total seat count in the state will increase to 32Factors influencing Maharashtra Lok Sabha Election Results 2024middaycom spoke to political analysts and strategists to understand the factors that led to the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 and how much the respective alliances had on the public and how their future looks with impending state assembly pollsThe experts suggested that the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 was certainly influenced by factors like Maratha quota agitation the onion export ban farmersrsquo stir polarisation of voters etcWhen asked about his first reaction to the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 political analyst Abhay Deshpande said that it was not unexpected However the unexpected factor he added was Congress winning more seats than Shiv Sena UBTldquoThe Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 were not that unexpected The simmering anger among the public over Maratha quota agitation the use of brute force against protestors anger over the feeling that if BJP wins 400 seats they would change the Constitution the Citizenship Amendment Actrsquos implementation etc influenced the outcome in Maharashtrardquo said analyst DeshpandeHe added that the Mahayuti lost out on Nashik over the onion export ban while the coalition lost the Aurangabad seat due to the presence of a strong candidate from All India MajliseIttehadul Muslimeen candidate which prevented the polarisation of votesMeanwhile political strategist Ritwik Mehta stated that the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi had tried to present a strong third dimension to the electoral battle but could not which led to polarisation of votes of Dalit and Muslim communities towards Maha Vikas Aghadi since they were antiestablishment antiBJP He also stated that the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawarled NCP cadre did not support BJP leaders as much as BJP cadre supported themldquoThe farmersrsquo unrest and unemployment issues did affect the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 in Maharashtra including in Mumbai Secondly the BJP put their all in campaigning for candidates of Shinde Sena and NCP but they did not extend the same helping hand and the vote transfer did not come through from the two factions This caused BJP to lose out on numbersrdquo Mehta addedLok Sabha Election Results 2024 lsquoDelay in seatsharing cost MahayutirsquoBoth Deshpande and Mehta however echoed that the Mahayutirsquos late announcement of candidates as opposed to that of Maha Vikas Aghadi also cost them the electionsldquoSeeing as Shiv Sena UBT had approached seatsharing the public thought that the MVA will be struggling However by the time Mahayuti finalised seatsharing and announced candidates MVA had completed two rounds of campaigning BJP had thought they had a good strike rate and thus fought over number of seats Shinde Sena had to fight for his bastionmdashThanemdashtill days before filing of nominationrdquo said DeshpandeMehta adding to that said ldquoMahayuti did take a lot of time for seatsharing For instance in Mumbai North Central they announced Ujjwal Nikamrsquos candidature quite hastily It was expected that the party would field someone experienced like Ashish ShelarrdquoHow did campaigns of two alliances influence Lok Sabha Election Results 2024When asked about how the campaigning of the two alliances affected the results Mehta said that it was surprising that despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi outgoing Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath holding rallies in Maharashtra they could not sway votersldquoIf PM Modi campaigned at one place no other star campaigner including Amit Shah would go there and hold rallies However they broke away from this CM Yogi amp Shah held rallies in places where PM Modi had held 18 rallies yet they could not sway voters Furthermore had they Mahayuti partners been more involved in campaigning for BJP candidates with fervour they could have turned the tiderdquo said Mehta founder of think tank Niti TantraHe said in contrast to Mahayutirsquos grandeur rallies the MVA kept it lowkey ldquoThe public did not see Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi or Mallikarjun Kharge coming and rallying for any candidate of MVA They had mostly fielded local leaders and other local leaders had campaigned for them thus paving the way for the public to resonate with them Moreover their coordination was good in contrast to that of Mahayutirdquo Mehta addedMeanwhile Deshpande said that the Mahayuti had realised that Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar to an extent still had peoplersquos sympathy over the split in the party and its name and symbol being awarded to the other factions thus additional meetings were held with PM ModildquoAdditionally in previous elections the Opposition played on the pitch prepared by the BJP This time the INDIA bloc led by Congress announced their 5 Nyay Justice scheme and set their narrative They used the notion that lsquo400 paarrsquo for BJP would endanger the Constitution to their benefit Meanwhile BJP moved towards communal polarisation by vilifying Muslims and saying they are after your mangalsutras etcrdquo said DeshpandeThe political analyst added that generally during elections a phenomenon of reverse polarisation is observed among voters and that it did not happen during Lok Sabha Elections 2024 thus benefitting MVAHe also pointed out that the MVA relatively had gelled well despite the public perception unlike Mahayuti ldquoMVA was formed in 2019 they had ample time to sort differences So their win was a combination of mathematics and chemistryrdquo responded DeshpandeLok Sabha Election Results 2024 Impact of votersrsquo behaviour on outcomeRitwik Mehta said that the voters in Maharashtra have been simmering over the split in parties and politicians changing allegiances People in rural areas too through social media are keeping up with the current happenings he saidElaborating further he said ldquoEven core BJP voters observe that Maharashtra politics had never stooped so low This resulted in many not going out and voting He also said that there are many swing voters who may harbour a soft spot for one political party but will vote based on their local leaderrsquos allegiancesrdquoLok Sabha Election Results 2024 What lies ahead of Mahayuti MVAWhen asked about both the alliancersquos futures ahead of impending state assembly elections Deshpande said that the BJP will have to compromise a lot given their performance in Lok Sabha elections He also added that since morale is high in MVA things for now seem relatively easierldquoFor MVA between the three partners talks on seatsharing will have to be broached in a calm manner Congress during Lok Sabha elections did not retaliate much since it had a lot on stake since they wanted to preserve INDIA bloc too With state assembly elections the focus will be on local issues and since they have the most number of seats at the moment they can take an assertive stancerdquo said DeshpandeWhile he predicted equal sharing in the MVA conversely the BJP will have to prove their mettle amid the antiBJP atmosphere in the state and its poor performance in the pollsldquoAmong the Mahayuti partners Shindeled Sena had the best strike rate Meanwhile Ajit Pawar factionrsquos involvement hinges on how many sitting MLAs do not go back to Sharad Pawar and the pending Supreme Court judgement in NCP vs NCP case BJP given their performance will have to compromise a lotrdquo he added