Lok Sabha elections 2024: Caste politics and a three-way battle awaits Akola

In the Akola Lok Sabha constituency the Congress has invoked the Maratha card intensifying the stakes in the election With the BJPrsquos Anup Dhotre VBArsquos Adv Dr Prakash Ambedkar and Dr Abhay Patil from Congress in the fray a threeway contest is imminent in the constituencyGiven that the two major candidates hail from the Maratha community there is a likelihood of Hindu votes being polarised The outcome of this threeway contest hinges on whose favor the division of votes will fall this time Historically it has been observed that in such scenarios the BJP tends to benefit Speculation is rife regarding whether this trend will repeat itself this yearNevertheless despite the triangular fight in Akola the sitting MP and grandson of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Prakash Ambedkar appears to be in a comfortable positionThreeway contestIn the Akola constituency caste politics and the dynamics of vote division have wielded significant influence in every Lok Sabha election Over the past three and a half decades barring two exceptions Akola has witnessed a threeway contest Remarkably this scenario has consistently favored the BJPHistorically until 1989 the Akola constituency was a stronghold of the Congress party However since then the BJP has held sway with Pandurang Fundkar representing three times and Prakash Ambedkar twice with Congress support However with the former Union Minister of State Sanjay Dhotre of the BJP securing four consecutive terms Akola earned a reputation as a BJP stronghold with Congress unable to break the streak of defeats over the yearsIn recent elections the Congressrsquos decision to field minority candidates resulted in a threeway contest among Dalits Muslims and Hindus ultimately benefiting the BJP Despite the ongoing threeway contest there are expectations of significant strategic shiftsMaratha cardPrakash Ambedkarrsquos backing of two Congress candidates and one from the NCP in the state raises speculation about Maha Vikas Aghadirsquos potential candidate against him in Akola Congress strategically plays the Maratha card by fielding Dr Abhay Patil considering the dominance of Maratha voters in Akola The constituencyrsquos diverse electorate including Dalits Muslims OBCs Malis Dhangars and tribal communities holds significant sway over the election outcome While religious sentiments took precedence in the 2019 elections indications point to a return to caste politics this time With Congressrsquos innovative approach the contest in Akola gains vibrant hues setting the stage for a closely fought battle among all three contenders with the outcome hinging on who can navigate the altered political dynamics effectivelySaffron againThe BJP has not lost a Lok Sabha election in the Akola constituency since 2004 Threatening its chances of making it five in a row are ironically allegations of parivarwad dynasticism with the ruling party fielding Anup Dhotre son of fourtime MP Sanjay Dhotre The BJP has established Akola as its stronghold by promoting leaders from the majority KunbiMaratha communityThe last two general elections heavily favored the BJP due to two factors the influence of Narendra Modi and the Congressrsquos decision to field a Muslim candidate Hidayatulla Patel leading to increased polarisation In 2019 Patel received 254370 votes mainly from the Muslim community while Ambedkar garnered 278848 votes primarily from Dalit voters Meanwhile the BJPrsquos Sanjay Dhotre secured a significant victory with a margin of 554444 votesDespite its underdeveloped status in Akola caste and religion take precedence over developmental issues such as water scarcity and inadequate job opportunities in electionsNow with this enticing battle between BJP Congress and VBA with VBA going solo this time will the vote polarisation benefit the saffron party is the curiosity within the political circlesA ray of hope for AmbedkarPrakash Ambedkar leader of Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi VBA sees a glimmer of hope amid a streak of defeats since 2004 The VBA decided to contest alone in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections due to unresolved infighting among Maha Vikas Aghadi MVA constituents over seat sharing Ambedkar accused the MVA of sidelining minority candidates from the LS electionsldquoClear signs of matchfixing between Congress Shiv Sena and BJP are emerging with weaker candidates being fielded and covert ties being exposed such as Nana Patolersquos withdrawal from the BhandaraGondiya seatrdquo explained Ambedkar elaborating on his decision to go soloHe added ldquoThey Congress have sidelined Muslim candidates not only in Akola but throughout the state Muslims Christians and Jains Now is there any distinction between MVA and MahayutirdquoAmbedkar remains hopeful that Muslims will support him despite Congress nominating Patil VBA emphasises Patilrsquos ties to VHP and RSS in talks with Muslim leadersAmbedkar also aims for Maratha votes through his connection with Manoj JarangePatil In 2019 he contested from Akola and Solapur but lost despite previous wins in 1998 and 1999 In the 2019 General Election VBA allied with AIMIM impacted Congress and NCP candidates in nine Lok Sabha seatsPoll analysts suggest that Prakash Ambedkarrsquos VBA has the potential to make a substantial impact on the vote share of opposition alliance partners citing figures from the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls in VidarbhaldquoIn many constituencies of Maharashtra the combined vote share of the VBA and Congress surpasses that of the BJP In the past Congress leaders have pointed fingers at the VBA for defeats on several seats by narrow margins which could have otherwise swung in their favour they have alleged Some of the congress leaders even today accuse the VBA of covertly aiding the BJP in both parliamentary elections in 2014 and 2019 However all attention is focused on one question While the VBA may significantly influence the vote share of both the BJP and Congress will it secure victory and secure a seat in Parliament as it has done beforerdquo said Mayur Ayare a poll analyst and a teacher of political science from NagpurVBArsquos past performance in VidarbhaIn 2014 Ambedkar secured 238776 1428 per cent votes in the Akola Lok Sabha constituency a figure that increased by about 40000 votes in 2019 reaching 278848 votes Similarly in BhandaraGondia a BRPBMS candidate garnered a voter share of 016 per cent in 2014 whereas a VBA candidate in 2019 secured a vote share of 368 per cent In Ramtek BRPBMS candidate Sandeep Nandeshwar received 2640 votes in 2014 but in 2019 VBArsquos Kiran Rodge received 36340 votes marking a significant jump of almost 34000 votes Mohan Rathod of BRPBMS secured 22143 votes in 2014 in YavatmalWashim whereas Vanchitrsquos Pravin Pawar garnered 94228 votes in 2019 Describing Vanchitrsquos performance in 2019 as exceptional Ambedkar said ldquoI am very sure that this time around VBA will come out not only lsquochanging the dynamics of the voting patternrsquo in this Lok Sabha election but also emerge as a stronger party than beforerdquoSanjay Patil a Mumbaibased researcher and an expert in urban politics and elections said The VBArsquos vote share surged from 2014 to 2019 yet converting this into seats is key Some VBA supporters feel uncertain sparking talk of a potential VBACongress alliance However therersquos concern about vote polarization and division especially with the Congress fielding a candidate linked to the RSS Winning seats not just boosting vote shares is the ultimate measure of success