Unprecedented period in Maharashtra politics as state votes today

Todayrsquos Assembly elections will be a defining moment for Maharashtra its major political parties and their respective leaders who have altered the state politics in an unprecedented manner in the past five years Having an element of unpredictability thanks to many players who have put aside their respective ideologies to form alliances the campaign for 288 seats saw a fierce battle to grab power by way of portraying each other as villains Apart from drawing the votersrsquo attention with ldquolike never beforerdquo promises of cash handouts and freebies religion and caste identity overshadowed the agenda of economic progress and sectoral developmentFrom left Congress state president Nana Patole Shiv Sena UBT chief Uddhav Thackeray NCPSP chief Sharad Pawar and Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan during a press conference last month File PicSayyed Sameer AbediParties began from where they left off in the Lok Sabha elections which tipped the majority in Maha Vikas Aghadirsquos favour with Congress on top Jostling and shoving dominated the Assembly seatsharing exercise in both the Maha Vikas Aghadi MVA and the BJPled Mahayuti camps Judging by the number of seats they are contesting it seems that the two national partiesmdashCongress and BJP the principal rivals in the electoral fieldmdashare vying for the top spot It is believed that both Congress and BJP aim to outperform their respective alliance partners hoping to steer state politics into a bipolar mode reducing regional allies to minor playersFrom left DyCM Devendra Fadnavis CM Eknath Shinde and DyCM Ajit Pawar during a press conference last month File PicShadab KhanIn the Lok Sabha Congress achieved a quantum leap with Maharashtra giving it the highest number of MPs in the country This boosted the morale of the partyrsquos state leadership which had been ridiculed for winning only two MPs in 2014 and just one in 2019 Congressrsquos regained selfesteem and newfound confidence have however caused some friction within the MVA particularly with Shiv Sena UBTMaking upFor BJP the Lok Sabha verdict meant a shocking drop in a state that had powered the Modi government twice in succession The party and its ideological parent the RSS swung into action immediately after the debacle Recently the BJPrsquos leadership claimed to have negated the ldquoSave Constitutionrdquo narrative the MVA had benefited from in the Lok Sabha Being the statersquos singlelargest party with a haul of over 100 MLAs each in the past two elections the BJP has planned to win more than its allies and rivals Its seat share is much bigger than the allies and opponentsFor Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawarrsquos NCP the field is not that wide Yet Shinde relies heavily on ldquodole outrdquo to win as many seats as he has been given Ajit Pawarrsquos NCP has been restricted to even smaller numbers He has pinned high hopes on a private election management agency he had hired after the Lok Sabha elections MVA has kept up with the Lok Sabha campaign but tweaked it by adding the guarantees to counter the euphoria Mahayutirsquos lsquoLadki Bahinrsquo had created People have heard arguments over lsquofailedrsquo and lsquosuccessfulrsquo guarantees that were given by the BJPMahayuti and Congressled state governments where similar schemes were announced ahead of pollsContests withinIn MVA Congress has a competition with Sharad Pawarrsquos NCPSP and Uddhav Thackerayrsquos Sena that also rallies against a breakaway Sena Shinde Ajit Pawarrsquos NCP seemed to have set a minimal target for itself barring a prestigious duel between the DyCM and his nephew Yugendra in the Pawarsrsquo native Baramati Not just the Baramati family feud these elections have seen other families break up too Brother and sister brother and brother husband and wife father and daughter uncles and nephews are up against each other In some places it looked like an attempt to keep the seat in the family party affiliation notwithstanding because it matters most in power politics and allied activities Four members of the senior ministerrsquos family including his former MP daughter are contesting from four different segments in Nandurbar district Three brothers represent different parties The daughter is contesting as an independentWarring cousinsOn the party front two estranged cousins will again be testing themselves against each other Raj Thackerayrsquos MNS has been more aggressive than before while putting up a solo fight MNS is considered a vote cutter that has helped Uddhav Thackerayrsquos rival parties As it happened in the past elections more so in 2009 when Raj was at his peak MNS is expected to dent MVA more rather than Mahayuti in which it has a friend in BJP Raj has strongly criticised CM Eknath Shinde calling him out for stealing the Sena symbol and party which he said was late Balasaheb Thackerayrsquos property Here the estranged cousins appeared on the same page In addition to MNS AIMIM Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi a third front of smaller parties Parivartan Mahashakti and other small outfits complete the voter cuttersrsquo orderFate of leadersThe Assembly poll will determine the importance and define the roles of the leading characters of the major parties It will be a turning point for BJPrsquos twotime CM Devendra Fadnavis who has worked as deputy CM since June 2022 If BJPMahayuti wins and makes a government the high command will have to consider a popular choice Fadnavis among others if any for the CMrsquos post If he is not chosen for the top job the party will have to rehabilitate him in a respectful high position either in the Union government or in the party national organisation Shindersquos fate will hang in the balance in Mahayutirsquos win or defeat Actually he is fighting two battles at the same time One within the alliance and the other against Uddhav Thackeray for acquiring a brand of lsquooriginal Senarsquo in the peoplersquos court Ajit Pawarrsquos NCP is at the mercy of the voters who will prefer him over his uncle The verdict will measure his hold against the unclersquos and show him which way to go mdash to stay firm with the BJP keep his independent existence intact or return home if the senior hasnrsquot burnt the bridge yetIn Congress winning more seats than allies will mean internal chaos With half a dozen claimants for the CMrsquos post the high command will have a tough task at hand What applies to Shinde also goes for Uddhav Thackeray as far as the battle for lsquooriginal Senarsquo in the votersrsquo court is concerned For fulfilling his aspirations to head the state again Thackerayrsquos numbers and his tacit understanding with the Congress with which he appeared to be on the same page on many issues will matter most But in case Sharad Pawar is in a commanding position we will see a different ball game The Pawar camp has concentrated more on taking the battle into the rivalsrsquo citadel especially where the BJP had emerged in the past decade Its silence over infighting in the MVA was meaningfulOthers too importantAll said and done the rebels independents and small parties in the contest are set to influence the results and the postelection cutthroat machinations It was in the 1995 elections that this category of vote cutters and 45 independent winners had a major say in the making of the government Also why forget what had happened in 2019 When the undivided Shiv Sena pushed its prepoll partner BJP away despite winning together a decisive mandate the BJP had made a government with the undivided NCPrsquos Ajit Pawar who returned within three days Later Sena joined hands with the NCP and Congress to form an MVA government headed by Uddhav Thackeray Two and a half years later Shinde broke the Sena to become a CM with BJPrsquos support and a year after Ajit Pawar split NCP to be part of Mahayuti No wonder the 2024 Assembly elections hold too many foreseen and unforeseen things in its belly36No of Assembly seats in Mumbai