Maharashtra's political landscape braces for seismic shift ahead of LS polls

As the electoral battle for 48 seats in the state heats up further the political parties are busy strategising their moves The two major forces MahaYuti Shiv Sena NCP BJP and Maha Vikas Aghadi Shiv Sena UBT NCPSP Congress are going to be taking on each otherWhile the incumbent government is campaigning with the aim of Ab ki baar 400 par the opposition parties are looking to capitalise on the victim card However a strong contender to stand up to both these forces has recently seen a meteoric rise and could change the electoral landscape in the statePolitical strategist Ritwik Mehta who is also the founder of the think tank Niti Tantra gave key insights regarding the political landscape in Maharashtra particularly focusing on the alliances and strategies of major political parties as they gear up for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 The discussion delved into the internal dynamics of political coalitions the emergence of new players and the evolving sociopolitical factors shaping electoral outcomesMehta responding to a query on the two coalitions of Maharashtra working out said that Maha Vikas Aghadis ship is sailing in troubled waters especially amid seatsharing talksThe alliance is based on two factors and they are chemistry and mathematics The BJP is in alliance with Shiv Sena because chemistry and with Ajit Pawarled NCP for mathematics said Ritwik however he pointed out that Shiv Sena UBT Congress and NCPSP are not ideologically aligned and added that the public airing of discontentment has had an impactThe founder of Niti Tantra added When Sena UBT released their list of candidates top leadership of Congress in the state publically expressed displeasure saying they were not taken into confidence It took nearly a week for the exchange of barbs between Congress and Sena UBTs top leaders to stopSena UBT had announced candidates for 17 seats including those in Mumbai and Sangli which were at the time under discussionAlso Read Exclusive In politics friends become enemies you never know in which direction the coin will flip says Prakash AmbedkarMehta further said that the cadre of the grand old party in Sangli is not happy with the decision of the MVAEffect of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 on grand alliancesSpeaking about the effect of Lok Sabha Elections 2024 results on the following two alliances he remarked that the handling of discontentment brewing among parties is crucial especially for MVA He also remarked that the MahaYuti is sailing relatively smoothly over the chemistry between the partiesThe political analyst said that the Maha Vikas Aghadi and INDIA bloc in national politics are at risk of disbanding due to the internal conflict amidst the partiesElucidating on it further Mehta stated that Maha Vikas Aghadi faces challenges in maintaining cohesion which raises concerns about the alliances stability He said in the broader coalition INDIA a similar view can be witnessedOne by one the opposition bloc leaders are backing out Mamata Banerjee fought solo Nitish Kumar also switched and sided with BJP due to increasing pressure by his party leaders who believed they came to power because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi Ritwik saidFactors influencing voter behaviour in MaharashtraWhen asked about the evolving demographics and socioeconomic factors influencing voter behaviour Ritwik said that in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 caste identities will play a significant role as parties are attempting to appeal to diverse voter segmentsGiven the recent Maratha agitation and the increased intensity of the protests in the last few months of 2024 Ritwik said BJP winning from Marathwada seems difficult He added that the saffron party however is likely to sweep all seats in VidarbhaThrough my interactions with community members particularly in Vidarbha where Marathas wield significant power it is clear that support for the BJP continues Even in Chandrapur where the Congress has put Pratibha Dhanorkar as a candidate pockets of Maratha voters support the BJP This move can be linked to the execution of several schemes like as the Vishwakarma Yojana and Prime Minister Modis explicit affinity with the OBC community which is supported by his cabinets Mehta addedRitwik added that Caste politics continue to play a significant role in electoral dynamics Additionally regarding tribal votes the misconception that only Gonds support the BJP has been debunked With Draupadi Murmu assuming the presidency there has been a notable increase in support from various tribal communities as evidenced in the recent Chhattisgarh electionsThe political strategist further said You will see not only the Gonds but Bhils also a very minor section votes for the BJP He added that however at one point in time Congress ran the Mulund network of methodsIf you go to Mumbai and talk to the Muslim community they once voted for the INC Now you talk to the minority community the Muslims they say they will vote for the Sena UBT he saidThackeray amp Ambedkar factorsAmid the recent happenings including Raj Thackerays Maharashtra Navnirman Sena announcing it will support the Mahayuti it changed the dynamics of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 contest in MaharashtraRitwik Mehta speaking to midday said that initially Raj Thackeray was brought to counter the Uddhav Thackeray group and he was being offered one seat However it seems like Thackerays party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS seems to have struck a deal with BJP that if they back Mahayuti In Lok Sabha Elections 2024 the saffron party will support them in state assembly elections and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation BMC electionsSince the talks with MVA failed and Prakash Ambedkars Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi has decided to fight the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 soloVBA was supposed to join MVA however that fell through MVA wanted to take Ambedkars party since it had divided the Dalit and Mahar communities votes in 2019 assembly elections which had benefitted the BJP in the end Ritwik said He added that had VBA joined Maha Vikas Aghadi it would have been difficult for the BJP or other parties of MahayutiWhen questioned about the impact VBA going solo will have on the electoral landscape Ritwik said Mahars usually do not vote for BJP in either Maharashtra or across India however the Matangs do The Mahar communitys votes in Maharashtra goes to VBA now and in other states it is CongressHe added that Ambedkar has been aggressively campaigning for their candidates and giving good press conferences to set their footMehta added If the same thing happens in the Assembly that Prakash Ambedkar does not join the Maha Vikas Aghadi and they dont have the right to share seats then I think in the Assembly they will do the same damage as they did in 2019 and it will eventually help the BJP only because votes will be cutAs the election date draws nearer one thing is clear ndash Maharashtras political landscape is poised for a seismic shift Whether it is the rise of the VBA the intricacies of coalition politics or the aspirations of the common voter the stage is set for a dramatic showdown in the Lok Sabha Elections of 2024