Look out: Danger ahead!

Win toss and chase under lights Win game Win World CupThis is the story of the tail wagging the dog The story of modern T20 daynight cricket in South Asia and the Middle East The story of prime time TV ratings in India virtually deciding the winner by lottery IPL World Cup even ODIs to some extent are all so heavily influenced by the toss that it will soon become a cricket integrity issue The 2021 IPL was the prediction model for how the World Cup would pan out Win toss win game under lights If you look at all night games involving the heavyweights the pattern is clear Every team that won the toss chose to bowl first and inevitably won the game almost every time When a 5050 heads or tails call ends up with close to a 9037 win ratio it speaks to a system that is rotten The integrity of the contest is now not down to the bounce of the ball but the flip of a coinWorldclass AustraliansThis Australian team is full of worldclass cricketers who deserve their moment in the sun or the moon as it turns out Their team was balanced in every respect and they held their nerve when it mattered most They also held their breath when Aaron Finch walked out for the toss because they knew how crucial this was As it turned out Australia won the toss six out of seven times Their one toss loss coincided with being mauled by England who chased brutally under lights CoincidenceMost of the big teams had similar game plans Win toss chase under lights target the late overs and win with at least an over to spare Overs 1719 in particular became the death overs in the second innings A combination of skill and power with the bat an appalling lack of execution with the ball crucial dropped catches and of course the dew factor That is probably the single biggest reason why the toss is now so crucialmdashthe wet ball and perhaps it sliding on to the bat instead of holding in the wicket and grippingSo where does this leave the gamersquos administrators at a time when the everpresent threat of betting hangs over the integrity of the game If winners are this easy to predict it becomes fertile ground for perceptions of match fixing because any collapse or choke when the odds were overwhelmingly stacked in favour of chasing team might be viewed with suspicionDew factorWorld Cup 2022 is in Australia where almost every game will be played under lights and the dew factor can be crucial although not as pronounced as in Asia T20 cricket has never been afraid to drive innovation Super Overs free hits Super Subs midinnings timeouts driven by naked commercial avaricehellipso whatrsquos the answer to balancing the luck of the toss Some form of calculation that makes allowance for the historical advantage of chasing under lights similar to DuckworthLewis The team that loses the toss can make two substitutions at any point in the game The team bowling second gets a dry old ball every over from 1520There is probably no other global sport where you can safely say ldquowin toss win tournamentrdquo If the ICC remain wilfully blind to that anomaly they are clearly burying their heads in the Dubai sands There is a way to bank the money keep TV moguls happy and still maintain some form of integrity in the contest Or call it the T20 World CupLottery insteadThe writer is a Brisbanebased former firstclass cricketer