Stay united or go solo?

The ruling Mahayuti and the Opposition are taking risks with the strategies they are planning for the upcoming local body elections One misstep could prove costly for either sideOn paper the Mahayuti strategy for the upcoming local body elections looks like a smart and welltimed move in comparison to the Maha Vikas Aghadi MVA game planBut in politics even small mistakes can quickly backfire There is already an invisible unease within the alliance partners mdash the BJP Eknath Shindersquos Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawarheaded Nationalist Congress Party NCP One wrong move in the local elections could easily upset the ruling alliance equations and further widen the crack at the state government levelIn Mumbai where the Opposition is relatively strong the Mahayuti BJP Eknath Shindersquos Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawarrsquos Nationalist Congress Party have chosen unity out of necessity The Thackeray cousins Uddhav and Raj are expected to campaign aggressively to capture the Marathi vote Any split in the ruling alliance could make the task easy for Shiv Sena UBT and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNSFor two decades the Thackeray cousins fought each other never caring that their rivalry was splitting the Marathi vote and weakening the very community they claimed to represent Now with their political relevance on the decline the estranged cousins buried their differences and united under the banner of Marathi pride It is less about rediscovering brotherhood and more about survival in a changing Mumbai where emotional appeals may be their last strong cardBut beyond Mumbai and Thane the story is different as local ambition outweighs coalition dharma for both ruling as well as Opposition parties These polls often called ldquomini Assembly electionsrdquo will be held across 29 municipal corporations and hundreds of local body elections that will shape Maharashtrarsquos political future well beyond the civic levelThe Mahayuti strategy is to stay united where competition is strong and go solo where rivals are weak Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has explained that places where ruling partners are already in first or second place the Mahayuti will fight independently to avoid giving the Opposition any extra advantage It sounds like a clever plan but if the local maths doesnrsquot work out the Opposition will get an opportunity to bounce backSolo contests will help parties understand their individual strength at ground level But a bad result in major civic bodies in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region MMR and smaller municipalities in the rest of Maharashtra could spell trouble for the socalled ldquotriple engine SarkarrdquoFor the BJP which leads both the central and state government the local body polls are an opportunity to expand its base in Maharashtrarsquos urban and rural belt But for Eknath and Ajit the same elections are a test of survival and legitimacyShinde needs to prove that his breakaway faction still commands public support while Ajit Pawar must demonstrate that his gamble of joining hands with the BJP has not alienated his traditional votersAll three ruling alliance partners will try to put their best foot forward and show command over the electorate But thatrsquos precisely where the danger lies The real threat to the Mahayuti comes from each other The growing race among alliances to out power each other may actually end up weakening the ruling allianceDuring the onground campaigning contestants and party speakers from the ruling alliance could end up attacking each other highlighting faults and flaws within their campsThis competitive spirit will turn the local body elections into a fullblown battlefield of rivalries The message of unity will go for a toss and become a headache for those Mahayuti ministers and leaders sitting in MantralayaBut it is not only the ruling regime that faces a risk in the strategy they are working on The Opposition is navigating tricky terrain with its strategy to keep BJP at bay Shiv Sena UBT is pushing the Congress to join the Opposition alliance for local body polls to avoid a vote split UBT Sena is in touch with senior Congress leaders in Delhi as the state Congress is keen on contesting aloneThe Sena UBT knows it can manage Mumbai to some extent Thane and Nashik on its own strength including the MNS alliance but in the rest of Maharashtra a divided Opposition would only help the ruling MahayutiOther than Congress Samajwadi Party SP leaders too feel that local body polls should not be contested in alliance with the Thackeray cousins This concern stems from the fear that any association with Raj Thackerayrsquos Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MNS could impact their parties at the national level MNSrsquos aggression towards nonMarathi speakers has drawn criticism in several statesThe Mahayuti leadership may assume people will support them because of promises of development coalition deals and power politics The Opposition may believe that playing the emotional Marathi card and highlighting misrule will win heartsBut voters on the ground can easily sense when parties are fighting for power and not for people In such case voters can punish political parties at the ballot box complicating calculations and making life difficult for both campsThatrsquos why these local body elections are more than just a popularity contest They test how smartly parties manage their alliance read the ground and plan ahead And since these polls are often treated as mini Assembly elections the results will set the stage for Maharashtrarsquos politics for the next few years and set the tone for the 2029 parliamentary and Assembly elections in the stateSanjeev Shivadekar is political editor midday He tweets SanjeevShivadekSend your feedback to mailbagmiddaycomThe views expressed in this column are the individualrsquos and donrsquot represent those of the paper