Fears of US ground assault drive oil spike amid Iran–Israel escalation

Israel and Iran traded further missile fire on Monday amid rising fears that the United States US could deepen its involvement in the conflict by carrying out ground operations against Iranrsquos Gulf territories These concerns triggered a surge in global oil pricesIran also carried out new strikes targeting a water desalination plant in Kuwait following attacks over the weekend on its own electrical infrastructure that caused power outages in parts of Tehran news agency AFP reportedSaudi Arabia stated it had intercepted five ballistic missilesThe conflict has disrupted the global economy leading to fuel shortages across large parts of Asia volatility in stock markets and a sharp rise in oil prices The main US benchmark crossed USD 100 per barrel while Brent crude traded in the UK rose steeply to nearly USD 117With economies already under strain from recent increases in energy costs and President Donald Trump openly considering a military move to seize Iranrsquos main oil export terminal market analysts warned that any US ground action or broader Iranian retaliation could push oil prices to unprecedented levelsWest Asia conflict Oil price surgeldquoIf the US were to launch a ground invasion of Iran possibly targeting Kharg Island or if Tehran were to intensify retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure or fully shut the Strait projections of USD 200 per barrel oil would no longer be unrealisticrdquo said Tamas Varga of PVM EnergyOil prices have never exceeded USD 150 per barrel last reaching record highs during the July 2008 commodity boomHowever since the conflict began Brent crude has risen by nearly 60 percentIn an interview with the Financial Times Trump said he wants to ldquotake the oil in Iranrdquo and could seize the export hub at Kharg Island He compared this to US actions in Venezuela where Washington plans to control the oil industry following the capture of leader Nicolas Maduro in JanuaryAt the same time the US President expressed confidence that the conflict could soon end through negotiations as Pakistan hosted regional foreign ministers for discussions on the crisisAs Israel continued its offensive against Iranbacked Hezbollah in southern Lebanon an official told AFP that an Israeli strike hit an army checkpoint killing at least one Lebanese soldier Indonesia confirmed that one of its peacekeepers had been killed after a projectile struck a UN positionSeparately the Israeli military reported that a soldier was killed on Sunday during combat in southern Lebanon bringing the total number of troops killed since fighting with Hezbollah began this month to sixDiplomatic effortsOn the ground there were no signs of easing hostilities Israel said its air defence systems responded to ldquomissiles launched from Iranrdquo after earlier announcing strikes on what it described as ldquoterror regime military infrastructure across TehranrdquoOn the diplomatic front Pakistanmdashacting as an intermediary between Washington and Tehranmdashhosted foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia Turkey and Egypt in Islamabad for talksPakistanrsquos Foreign Minister Dar said the discussions focused on ways to ldquobring an early and permanent end to the warrdquo He added that both Iran and the United States had expressed confidence in Pakistanrsquos role in facilitating dialogueDar also said he had spoken with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi UN SecretaryGeneral Antonio Guterres and other counterparts who supported the initiativeHowever Iranrsquos parliamentary speaker accused Washington of using diplomacy as a coverDespite engaging in diplomatic outreach including proposing a 15point peace plan the United States has continued to deploy additional military resources to the region including an amphibious assault ship carrying 3500 MarinesSleepless nightsIran confirmed that an Israeli strike last week killed Alireza Tangsiri commander of the Revolutionary Guardsrsquo naval forces whom Israel had identified as responsible for efforts to block the Strait of HormuzThe ongoing strikes have also severely affected civilians in IranldquoI miss a peaceful nightrsquos sleeprdquo an artist in Tehran told AFP describing the nighttime bombardments as so intense that ldquoit felt like the whole city was shakingrdquoThe conflict has expanded into a wider regional crisis with Iran retaliating against Gulf states and effectively restricting access through the crucial Strait of HormuzIran stated that it has closed the Strait to vessels from hostile nations The waterway had previously accounted for roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about onefifth of liquefied natural gas shipmentsWith AFP inputs