OPNEX Gold Market View on Flows Real Yields and Safe Haven Bid

Where gold is starting 2026OPNEX notes that gold has been printing fresh alltime highs in January with spot prices pushing into the 4900oz area and US futures settling near similar levelsIn parallel major banks have turned more openly bullishmdashGoldman Sachs for example raised its end2026 forecast to 5400oz from 4900 pointing to strong investment demand and ongoing centralbank diversificationOPNEXrsquos interpretation the headline is the price but the story is the buyer mixThe OPNEX ldquodemand stackrdquo that explains the tapeRather than treating gold as a single macro trade OPNEX breaks demand into three stacked layers that can reinforcemdashor cancelmdasheach other1 The official bid central banksWorld Gold Council tracking shows central banks were net buyers 45 tonnes in November with yeartodate reported net buying of 297 tonnes through NovemberOPNEX reads this as a slowmoving but persistent pillar it typically doesnrsquot chase intraday headlines but it can keep the market tight when private demand returns2 The fast bid ETFs and asset allocationOPNEX flags a clear ldquoallocation pulserdquo in the ETF channelWorld Gold Council reports 2025 was the strongest year of global gold ETF inflows on record with AUM and holdings reaching record highsEarly 2026 flow recaps show SPDR Gold Shares GLD pulling in about 32B as gold pushed to new highsThis matters because ETF demand can scale quicklymdashit is one of the few channels that can materially change marginal demand over weeks not quarters3 The leverage layer futures positioning and volatilityGoldrsquos futures market activity remains heavy with COMEX data showing large daily volumes and open interestOPNEX treats this layer as the ldquoamplifierrdquo it can accelerate trends but it can also drive sharp air pockets when positioning becomes crowdedThe part many traders miss gold is trading against real yields not just headlinesOPNEX emphasizes that goldrsquos durability at record highs is notable given where real yields sitRecent data for the 10year TIPS real yield has been around the 1937 area in January 2026In older regimes real yields at these levels were often a meaningful headwind for nonyielding assetsSo why is gold still bid OPNEX points to a blend ofpolicy and geopolitical hedging demand investors paying for insurance andreserve diversification a structural buyer base that is less pricesensitive than typical commodity usersA practical map for 2026 four triggers OPNEX would watchOPNEX does not anchor on a single target price It watches triggers that tend to change the type of gold market traders are inUSD swings a weaker dollar mechanically helps gold recent reporting explicitly linked the rally to a softer dollarRealyield direction if real yields keep rising gold often needs stronger ldquoinsurancerdquo demand to offset the dragETF flow continuity sustained inflows can keep dips shallow flow reversals can turn pullbacks into correctionsCentral bank cadence officialsector buying staying elevated reduces the chance that demand disappears all at onceWhat would weaken the bull case in OPNEXrsquos frameworkOPNEX highlights three conditions that would most likely cool the marketReal yields reset higher while risk hedging demand fades less need to pay for insuranceETF flows stall or reverse after a record year removing the fastestgrowing demand channelGeopoliticalpolicy risk premium compresses lowering the urgency to hold hedgesClosing take from OPNEXOPNEX views 2026 gold as a market where price is being supported by multiple buyers at oncemdashcentral banks providing a slow but steady bid ETFs delivering fast allocation pressure and futures activity amplifying momentumThat combination can keep the trend resilient but it also means the cleanest early warning signal is usually not the headlinemdashitrsquos whether the flow stack stays intact