Sensex, Nifty hit 52-week highs as global rally, FII inflows boosts markets

Hi readersI know the title might sound shocking but hear me out the least you can do for your future is give me a few minutes of your attention My name is David Merkur and Irsquom the CEO ofGold Silver Mart a precious metals dealer I started Gold Silver Mart with my brother Aharon in May 2023 after we spent years developing a trading strategy that we believed gave us a real edge when investing in gold and silver We wanted to monetize that edge so we built a business around itSince then wersquove been putting our approach to the test publicly I run a portfolio onBlossom Social under the name 100toM which stands for turning 100 into 1000000 That account is currently up over 40037 over the past year and you can follow along with the performance and commentary for yourselfI was alsofeatured in an article on Nasdaqfor my unconventional approach to forecasting goldrsquos direction and the predictions I shared there have so far tracked the market remarkably well Irsquom sharing all this not to brag but because I want you to understand that I donrsquot come to this topic lightly I live and breathe these markets This is what I doSo when I say I believe the stock market could crash as much as 8037 I donrsquot expect you to take it on faith I want you to weigh the evidence challenge it and think critically about what it might mean for you My only request is that you read this with an open mindOver the years Irsquove spent countless hours studying market cycles gold oil stocks and economic history What Irsquom about to share isnrsquot investment advice itrsquos my opinion based on patterns historical evidence and how I see the system working beneath the surface And in my view all the signs point to a coming 8037 collapse in the stock market one that could rival or even surpass the Great DepressionIf that sounds extreme thatrsquos because it is But every time people have dismissed these signals theyrsquove paid a heavy price So before you write this off let me walk you through the evidence and explain how crashes unfold in three distinct stages and why this one might be worse than anything wersquove seen beforeStage 1 Goldrsquos Rise ndash The Real Crash BeginsI want to start where the real story begins with gold For thousands of years goldwasmoney It wasnrsquot some alternative asset or hedge it was the foundation of the entire financial system Currencies were simply representations of the gold they could be redeemed for The value of oil land goods and services was measured by how much gold they were worth That all changed in the early 1970s when the United States decided it could no longer redeem dollars for gold Overnight the global monetary anchor was gone and paper money was set freeBut herersquos the part most people miss just because we stoppedmeasuringmoney in gold doesnrsquot mean gold stoppedmeasuringmoney Everything is still priced in gold maybe not directly but beneath the surface Itrsquos why I say when gold rises itrsquos not gold going up itrsquos everything else going downYou can see this most clearly in the story of oil After the gold standard ended oilproducing nations especiallySaudi Arabia realized that the dollars they were receiving for their oil were buying them less and lessrealvalue They werenrsquot just getting fewer goods they were getting far less gold They werenrsquot thinking in dollars They were thinking in gold And what they saw was that the same barrel of oil was fetching a shrinking amount of real moneyThis is what most people miss about oil pricing oil isnrsquot really priced in dollars Itrsquos priced in gold because oil powers the world and goldismoney Dollars are just the medium that sits between the two Every time the gold price rises sharply oilrsquos real purchasing power collapses If gold doubles oil is suddenly worth half as much in real terms even if the dollar price hasnrsquot changed Thatrsquos the hidden truth beneath every inflation cycle and every commodity boomAnd this is where Stage 1 of a major crash always starts Gold begins to rise not because the world suddenly loves gold but because the market is signaling that everything else is overvalued when measured inreal money Stocks real estate bonds even oil theyrsquore all shrinking relative to goldLetrsquos look at what actually happened during the biggest market collapses of the last few decades comparing gold and stocksfrom their peaks before the crash to their lowest points during the panicmiddot2000ndash2002 DotCom Bust SampP 500 crashed about ndash4937 while gold rose roughly 1237 Stock investors were cut in half while gold holders gained purchasing powermiddot2008ndash2009 Global Financial Crisis SampP 500 collapsed about ndash56837 while goldrsquos worst drawdown was about ndash3137 before skyrocketing to new highs Gold fell roughly half as much as stocks and recovered dramatically fastermiddot2020 COVID Crash SampP 500 dropped around ndash3437 while gold fell only ndash1537 before blasting through to record highs within five monthsThe message in that data is clear gold doesnrsquot crash like stocks do and often it doesnrsquot crash at all Even in the worst panics gold either rises or falls far less than equities and it almost always recovers faster If you measure your wealth in real terms gold consistently preserves far more purchasing power than paper assetsThis is why I say the real crash starts here When gold starts moving the repricing has already begun Everything else is being marked down in real money terms and most people donrsquot even realize itrsquos happening yetStage 2 Bonds Surge ndash Safety Becomes the PriorityOnce gold starts flashing the warning sign the second domino to fall is the bond market This is when fear stops being subtle and becomes visible Investors who ignored goldrsquos message rush into government bonds not because they believe in them but because they believeeverything else is about to get worseA bond rally isnrsquot optimism itrsquos a vote ofno confidence When bond prices surge and yields collapse thatrsquos the market screaming that growth is slowing inflation is peaking and risk assets are about to get hitWhen fear creeps in capital doesnrsquot disappear it runs And the first place it runs after gold is into bonds Pension funds insurance companies hedge funds and even retail investors sell equities and move into longduration Treasuries chasing safety and liquidity The result is yields plunging often well before central banks make a single policy moveWersquove seen this play out over and over 2000ndash2002 DotCom Bust 10year Treasury yields collapsed from around 6537 to under 437 2008ndash2009 GFC Yields plunged from roughly 5337 to 2137 as capital fled stocks Longterm Treasury ETFs like TLT surged more than 3037 during the worst equity collapse in generations 2020 COVID Crash The 10year yield fell from about 1937 to just 0537 its lowest level in history even before the Federal Reserversquos most aggressive easing beganThis isnrsquot optimism itrsquos triage Itrsquos the market abandoning risk and retreating to safety Bonds are where capital hides while it figures out its next moveThis stage is also where liquidity stress builds As bond yields collapse theyrsquore telling you something deeper credit demand is drying up growth expectations are deteriorating and risk appetites are evaporating Itrsquos the financial system pulling its hand away from the stove before it gets burnedBut this rotation is never the end of the story itrsquos the bridge to what comes next Once yields are near zero and bonds are overbought therersquos only one place left for capital to run cash And that transition from fear to outright panic is what triggers the final stage of a crashStage 3 Cash Strengthens ndash The Final Panic PhaseIf gold is the warning siren and bonds are the fire alarm then cash specifically US dollars is where everyone runs when the chaos is undeniable In a global crisis the US dollar isnrsquot just another currency itrsquos the worldrsquos reserve currency and a symbol of stability backed by the mightiest economy on earth When everything else is falling apart investors donrsquot flock to pesos or rupees they flock to dollarsFrom bonds to the dollar the capital rotationBy the time we reach this stage bond yields are already near zero and government debt is expensive Therersquos nowhere left to hide Forced liquidations accelerate Margin calls cascade Corporations and funds start hoarding cash simply to survive And global investors from sovereign wealth funds to central banks rush into US dollars because they trust it more than anything elseThis surge into dollars is not a sign that the dollar is ldquowinningrdquo Itrsquos a sign that everything else is losing purchasing power faster The dollar becomes the safest harbor not because it is flawless but because it is the least dangerous ship in a violent stormEquities finally crack and itrsquos brutalThis is when the final domino falls Stocks which often hold up longer than people expect finally implode Investors who ignored the gold signal in Stage 1 and the bond signal in Stage 2 are now forced sellersmiddotIn 1929 the Dow didnrsquot reclaim its peak until 1954 a 25year recovery The SampP Composite index plunged more than 8037 from its highmiddotIn the dotcom collapse 2000ndash2002 the Nasdaq lost about 7737 and took 15 years to recovermiddotIn 2008 the SampP 500 fell roughly 5737 erasing over a decade of gains in less than two yearsThese collapses wipe out wealth on a generational scale The deeper the bubble the deeper and longer the bustValuation is the smoking gunOne of the biggest reasons I believe wersquore heading toward a potential 8037 crash is valuation Forward PE ratios today are among the highest in history And asHoward Marks explains brilliantly therersquos a clear historical relationship between valuations and future returns the higher the starting point the lower and often negative the returns over the next decadeThe 8ndash1237 mythWall Street loves to repeat the story that the SampP 500 ldquoaverages 8ndash1237 per yearrdquo But the truth is it almost never delivers in that range The index swings violently huge gains in boom years and catastrophic losses in busts The socalled ldquoaveragerdquo is a mathematical illusion hiding the reality of cyclesRecoveries take decadesPeople consistently underestimate how long recoveries from valuationdriven collapses take The 1930s bear market required 25 years to return to previous highs The dotcom bust took 15 years Even 2008 with record central bank intervention wiped out more than a decade of gains If the next collapse is worse and I believe it could be we might not just be talking about years We could be talking about decadesThe deeper the excesses the more violent the correction And today those excesses are everywhereThe GoldtoSampP Ratio ndash A Hidden Warning SignalTherersquos one chart almost nobody talks about yet itrsquos one of the most important in understanding where we are in this cycle the goldtoSampP 500 ratio It measures how many units of the SampP 500 index one ounce of gold can buy and itrsquos one of the clearest ways to see how expensive stocks are relative to real moneyWhen this ratio is low stocks are expensive and gold is cheap When the ratio rises it means either stocks are crashing gold is rising or both And throughout history that ratio doesnrsquot just revert back to the mean it often overshoots far above it as the pendulum swings back in goldrsquos favorWersquove seen this again and again 2000 DotCom Bust The goldtoSampP ratio more than tripled in the years following the peak 2008 Global Financial Crisis The ratio nearly doubled by 2011 as gold outperformed dramatically 2020 COVID Crash The ratio jumped about 6037 in just months as capital rotated aggressively into goldRight now that ratio remains near historic lows That means stocks are still extremely overvalued relative to gold and gold has an enormous amount of catchup to do just to reach historical averages If history repeats the ratio will have to rise significantly And if panic drives it beyond the mean as it often does gold could dramatically overshoot and dominate performance for a decade or moreThis isnrsquot a shortterm story In my view the coming gold bull market could last 10 to 20 years Itrsquos not a trade itrsquos a structural shift Wersquove seen this type of long cycle before Goldrsquos run in the 1970s lasted almost a decade Its surge from the early 2000s into the 2010s lasted well over a decade Every time the paper system overextends the reversion lasts years not monthsAnd we are more overextended now than at any time in modern historyEconomic Warning Signs Are Already FlashingIf all of this sounds theoretical take a step back and look at whatrsquos happening in real time The early warning lights are already flashing the same ones that lit up before every major market collapse of the past century Most investors choose to ignore them until itrsquos too lateHerersquos what Irsquom watchingmiddotOil prices are collapsing Oil is the heartbeat of global economic activity When oil demand falls sharply itrsquos not just about energy itrsquos about slowing growth shrinking production and weakening trade Historically major drops in oil prices have preceded or coincided with recessions and market crashes If oilrsquos real price measured in gold is falling itrsquos a sign the system is contracting in real termsmiddotPMI and ISM are signaling contraction Both theManufacturing PMIand theISM Service Indexhave gone below 50 the critical line that separates growth from contraction Every single recession in modern US history has been preceded by this breakdownmiddotConsumer sentiment is collapsing Consumer spending drives roughly twothirds of the US economy When sentiment crashes spending follows and that has a domino effect on earnings employment and growth Current levels are as bad as or worse than what we saw before the 2008 crisismiddotInterest rates are rolling over Bond yields peaking and starting to fall isnrsquot a sign of relief itrsquos a sign the market expects weaker growth and potential deflation This is exactly what we saw in the months leading up to the 2000 and 2008 crashesmiddotGold is outperforming almost everything else This isnrsquot random Itrsquos the first stage of the sequence Irsquove laid out gold signaling that real money is being revalued upward as paper assets lose groundmiddotDefaults andbankruptciesare risingConsumer delinquenciesare climbing corporate defaults are increasing and bankruptcy filings are accelerating These are classic latecycle indicators the financial system starts to buckle from the bottom up before the real panic beginsAll of these signals point in the same direction Theyrsquore not isolated data points Theyrsquore pieces of a puzzle and when you put them together they form the same picture we saw in 2000 2008 and 2020 Only this time the stakes are higherWhy This Crash Could Be Worse Than Any BeforeI believe this time could be different and worse not because history has stopped repeating but because the underlying system is more fragile than itrsquos ever beenGlobal debt is at record highsGovernments corporations and households alike are drowning in obligations that can only be sustained in a world of constant growth and low rates Central banks are trapped if they raise rates too far they risk triggering mass defaults and systemic collapse if they cut them too soon they risk igniting inflation and destroying confidence in fiat money They are boxed in on all sidesLeverage is everywhere Speculation is rampant Financial engineering has replaced productivity as the driver of returns And valuations across stocks bonds and real estate are stretched far beyond what economic fundamentals can support Every metric that has ever mattered is screaming the same thing this system is more brittle and overextended than at any point in modern historyIn past crashes policymakers still had room to maneuver They could slash rates inject liquidity and stabilize the system Today that room is gone The margin for error has evaporated The next major reset will occur in a world with fewer safety nets higher stakes and far more debt than ever beforeThatrsquos why I believe the next crash could be deeper longer and more transformative than anything wersquove experienced If the cycle fully resets and I think it will the effects wonrsquot just be financial They will be structural The global economy the role of currencies the balance between hard assets and paper promises all of it could changeFinal Thoughts A Warning Not a GuaranteeIrsquom not writing any of this to scare you Irsquom writing it because I believe most people are walking toward a cliff blindfolded repeating slogans about ldquo837 returnsrdquo and ldquostocks always go uprdquo while ignoring the data that history has put right in front of themI could be wrong I hope I am But the evidence is overwhelming gold is signaling danger bonds are confirming it cash will soon follow and stocks are standing on a trapdoor The same sequence that has preceded every major market collapse is unfolding again right nowIrsquom David Merkur CEO of Gold Silver Mart Irsquove spent years studying these cycles and trying to understand how wealth behaves when paper promises break down And based on everything Irsquove learned I believe an 8037 stock market crash is not just possible itrsquos likelyIrsquom not here to tell you what to do My goal is to give you something to think about And if even part of what Irsquom saying could be true then itrsquos worth asking yourself how exposed you are and whether you should speak with someone who understands how to protect against that riskWhat you choose to do with that is entirely up to you But ignoring it would be a choice too and in my experience thatrsquos the most dangerous choice of allAnd Irsquoll leave you with one final thought I believe we are now entering Stage 2 of this cycle Bond prices are rising yields have been trending lower for the past month or two and capital is beginning to seek safety The danger is that there are no clear signals for when wersquoll transition into Stage 3 when the dollar surge and equity collapse hit full force That uncertainty is exactly why I think itrsquos worth paying attention and if therersquos even a chance Irsquom right preparing before that final stage arrives could make all the differenceAbout the AuthorIrsquom an entrepreneur and investor with ownership in multiple companies across different sectors I founded and operate several ventures that reflect my passion for business finance and innovationmiddotCanada Capitalndash a business financing platform that helps Canadian companies access working capital term loans and lines of creditmiddotAppliance Docndash one of Canadarsquos fastestgrowing appliance repair services focused on reliability fair pricing and customer trustmiddotGold Silver Martndash a precious metals dealer providing gold and silver bullion insights and analysis on global marketsmiddotTheTreeOfLifeBookndash a luxury coffeetable book brand designed to celebrate history faith and art through stunning print collectionsmiddotUSAmericaCapitalndash a USbased funding firm focused on connecting entrepreneurs with growth capital and strategic financial solutionsAnd many more ventures in development My focus is on building investing and scaling companies that create real value Whether itrsquos in finance metals real estate or consumer services my mission is simple to understand cycles take calculated risks and help others see opportunity where most people only see uncertainty