Many research firms are predicting a massive fall in PC shipments, and some are even saying that this could be the sharpest unit decline in history
Many research firms are predicting a massive fall in PC shipments, and some are even saying that this could be the sharpest unit decline in history
You know that things are bad indeed when the light at the end of the tunnel gives you no reason to cheeru2014you already know that it is just a train that is coming along to mow you down. And reports from various research organisations are giving us this sinking feeling.
First, let's begin with Gartner. This research firm says that PC shipments will touch around 257 million units this year this is a fall of 11.9 per cent when compared to 2008. What is most horrifying is that the drop is expected to be nearly four times of what was experienced in 2001, when PC shipments fell by 3.2 per cent. And people who lived through the dot-com bust in the early part of the new millennium will tell you things were bad indeed at that time.
Dim future
Ok, you will say, this is the world Asia is still doing fine, right? Wrong. IDC, another research firm, has cut its growth forecast for Asian PC shipments, excluding Japan and what hurts the most is the fact that it lowered its previous estimate of 7 per cent growth to zero. Yeah, you read that right zero. In terms of units sold, IDC says that, insofar as Asia is concerned, PC shipments may total 74 million units during 2009 and this represents a fall of 10 per cent from the previous estimate.
If you were the eternal optimist who says 'I'm all right so far' after falling nineteen stories of a twenty storied building, you would perhaps want to believe that India will still manage to grow after all, are not India and China the darlings of the world, bad economy or not? Well, we have bad news for you too India is expected to see shipments fall by 6 per cent as opposed to the previous forecast of a growth of 3 per cent. So much for the Asian tiger.
Enter the dragon
So far, the only positive outlook concerns China. IDC says that this country will grow and the poor state of the economy is such that we cheer when we hear the word 'grow' without even worrying about the quantum of growth. Things are so bad that any form of growth is good, and even though IDC says that China's growth has been reduced from the previously mentioned 9 per cent to 3 per cent, it is still good news for us. According to the Chinese-language Economic Daily News (EDN), the China government's consumer electronics (CE) promotion program is expected to boost PC shipments in China by around 2.5 million units, equivalent to around $1.09 billion during 2009.
It's nice to see that China, considered by many as a rival to India, is expected to do well. As Alistair MacLean says in HMS Ulysses, "things are bad indeed when only the enemy can save us."
QUICK TAKE
>>Many analysts say PC shipments worldwide are going to fall
>>Even India is not going to do well
>>The world's sole hope seems to be China
Grim and grimmer
If you think that Gartner is being bleak, then you may not want to hear what Morgan Stanley is saying. According to an analyst with this company, global PC revenues may drop 24 per cent this year, more than double the earlier estimate of a 10 per cent drop. For 2010, this analyst revised the forecast from 'flat' to a 3 per cent drop in revenues.
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