Knowing more details of potential risks makes people less fearful: Study

New research from the University of California San Diego sheds light on how people perceive risks finding that detailed knowledge of probabilities can make risks seem less riskyFor example if people are informed that 27 per cent of the population carries at least one copy of a gene that can cause Alzheimers Disease they may worry they have that geneHowever if you specify that this occurs because 25 per cent have one copy of the gene and 2 per cent have two copies of the gene the subjective perception of risk becomes less urgent Yet it is still true that 27 per cent of people carry a gene that could lead to AlzheimersTheres something about learning those individual probabilities that shift the way you think about the risk and cause you to actually reduce your estimate it will occur said Uma R Karmarkar study coauthor and assistant professor of marketing and innovation at UC San Diegos Rady School of Management and School of Global Policy and StrategyThe robust results published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology General are based on findings that were replicated in more than a dozen different experiments with more than 1500 participants living across the USIn one experiment 390 subjects who participated in the study via Amazons Mechanical Turk platform were assigned into three groups All groups were provided with the information that every single person has a 58 per cent chance of getting a flea bite that causes a newly discovered bacterial infectionThen two groups were given more specific information One group saw that the bites could come from various types of fleas and this caused them to think a flea bite was more likely A different group saw the various types of fleas and the probability of a bite from each typereceiving the explicit probability information led them to perceive the initial warning as less likely to happenGiving all those independent reasons with their probabilities may seem like it would enhance a recognition of how important an event is but can actually diminish the overall risk Karmarkar said When this happens the unlikelihood effect comes into play One thing that this means is that providing specific information on probabilities can help alleviate the fear of negative outcomesWhile the study focused on health risks the authors also tested the theory using potential positive outcomes such as winning a lottery Alongside the overall probability of hitting the jackpot some subjects received supplementary information such as if I pull a coloured ball from this urn youll win 50 dollars This additional information made subjects perceive themselves as less likely to win In positive scenarios the unlikelihood effect still holdsKarmakar notes that how institutions and policymakers provide information about health risks has become increasingly crucialWhen communicating about risks its important to be mindful of the goals of providing such information and what behaviours it is intended to drive she said This research can help policymakers refine their messaging to make sure their communications are impactfulThe paper The Unlikelihood Effect When Knowing More Creates the Perception of Less is coauthored by Daniella Kupor of the Questrom School of Business at Boston UniversityAlso read Ramesh Shindersquos personal library at Goregaon is a treasured wealth of Dr Ambedkarrsquos writingsThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever