Warming climate to surge dengue cases by 76 pct across Asia, Americas by 2050

An increasing rise in global temperatures is set to drive cases of dengue by as much as 76 per cent across a large number of countries in Asia and the Americas by 2050 according to a new studyThe research by a team of scientists from the universities of Washington Stanford and the US National Bureau of Economic Research provides the first direct evidence that a warming climate has already increased the diseases tollThe effects of temperature were much larger than I expected said lead author Marissa Childs Assistant Professor of environmental health at the University of WashingtonEven small shifts in temperature can have a big impact on dengue transmission and were already seeing the fingerprint of climate warming she addedThe study analysed over 14 million observations of local dengue incidence across 21 countries in Central and South America and Southeast and South Asia capturing both epidemic spikes and background levels of infectionDengue thrives in a Goldilocks zone of temperatures incidence peaks at about 278 degrees Celsius 82 degrees Fahrenheit rising sharply as cooler regions warm but dropping slightly when alreadyhot areas exceed the optimal rangeAs a result some of the largest increases are projected for cooler highpopulation regions in countries such as Mexico Peru and BrazilMany other endemic regions will continue to experience larger warmingfuelled dengue burdensThe findings published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggest that higher temperatures from climate change were responsible for an average of 18 per cent of dengue incidence across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas from 1995 to 2014 translating to more than 46 million extra infections annually based on current incidence estimatesCases could climb another 49 per cent to 76 per cent by 2050 depending on greenhouse gas emissions levels according to the studyAt the higher end of the projections the incidence of dengue would more than double in many cooler locations including areas in the study countries that are already home to over 260 million peopleAggressive climate mitigation would significantly reduce the dengue disease burden according to the study At the same time adaptation will be essential better mosquito control stronger health systems and potential widespread use of new dengue vaccinesThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and data of the text Midday managementmiddaycom reserves the sole right to alter delete or remove without notice the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoever