Critical COVID-19 cases amid younger people are down drastically

The test positivity rate also came down from 16 per cent to around 10 per cent with an almost similar number of daily tests

While the first half of October did not see much difference in COVID-19 cases, the city fared much better in the second half with cases reduced by almost half. The test positivity rate (TPR) also declined from 16 per cent to below 10 per cent in this period. However, the deaths remain a concern.

There were 31,000 COVID patients till October 15, which is equal to the number of patients in August. The TPR during this period was over 15 per cent. Till October 28, the number of patients was 16,000, while the TPR was below 10 per cent.

With regard to tests, from an average of about 6,400 tests per day in July, the city moved to 13,100 tests per day in October.

Deaths same for four months

The number of deaths has remained the same for the past four months. October's deaths tally with September, which saw 60,000 new cases.

Of the 1,242 deaths reported from September 30 to October 28, 92 per cent deaths occurred in the age-group of 50 and above. Overall, deaths in the younger age group reduced from an average of 15 per cent to 7 per cent of the total deaths. In the past month, 2,279 deaths occurred in the age group of 50 to 59, which is 17 per cent of the total deaths.

Serious cases in lower ages down

"Earlier, daily deaths were around 50-52, then they reduced to 40. In the past week, the number is fluctuating in between 30 to 35 per day. While the number of new cases has reduced, it will take a few days for deaths to come down too," said Suresh Kakani, additional commissioner, BMC.

A health worker conducts a COVID-19 test at Worli. PIC/ASHISH RAJE

He added that the number of symptomatic and critical patients in the working-age group has also reduced drastically. It may be due to social distancing, proper use of masks or the development of immunity.

However, the number of critical patients among the older group has not been reducing much and most of the deaths also belong to this demographic. Yet, a slight reduction in these numbers has also brought hope.

COVID-19 cases in the city had risen in June after the first Unlock began. The average number of daily cases in May was around 1,000, which increased to 1,250 in June and July.

In August, the number declined to 1,000. But after Ganeshotsav, there was a surge in September. The number of average cases soared to almost double — 1,960 cases per day.

The doubling rate of the city increased and recovery rate decreased in mid- September. This trend continued till mid-October.

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