COVID-19: Maharashtra economy to contract by 8 percent in FY21

Hit by the COVID19 pandemic the state economy has taken a downturn the Economic Survey of Maharashtra tabled in the legislature on Friday showed According to the survey the state economy is expected to register an eight per cent negative growth during 202021Except for the Agriculture and Allied Activities sector which is expected to grow at 117 per cent due to an overall good monsoon other important sectors have been projected as bad performersThe manufacturing and construction sectors were hit hardest and are expected to grow at 118 per cent and 146 per cent respectively due to which the industry sectorrsquos growth is expected to be 113 per cent said the surveyHotels and restaurants are among the major industries to be hit by the downturn File picDue to the hard impact of the pandemic situation mainly on trade repairs hotels and restaurants and transport sectors the services sector is expected to show a negative growth of 90 per centThe projections are expected to reflect in the state budget to be presented on March 8 Finance Minister Ajit Pawar had advised the legislators on Thursday to not expect much from the budgetThe survey commented on the impact of the pandemic on the statersquos revenue collection ldquoDue to the lockdown announced in order to control the spread of COVID19 industries and services except essential services were closed which resulted in slowing down of the economyldquoTo revive the economy the concessions given in the state excise duties motor vehicle tax and stamp duty impacted the state revenue adverselyrdquo it said adding that the Indian economy was also expected to show a negative growth of eight per centCOVID19 managementThe report made ample observations on the statersquos COVID19 mitigation efforts under the public health chapter ldquoMonthwise comparison of active cases of COVID19 shows that the weekly average growth rate was maximum 272 per cent in March 2020 and it decreased to 016 per cent in January 2021 The doubling time of positive cases increased from 54 days in March 2020 to 4201 days in January 2021rdquo it saidldquoThe recovery rate in January 2021 has increased to 948 per cent as compared to 129 per cent in March 2020 During the same period the number of tests performed per million population has increased from 600 to 103715rdquo the survey noted adding that as on January 15 2021 the most affected districts in the state considering the number of COVID19 cases per million population were Pune 33488 Thane 27584 Nagpur 26135 and Mumbai city and suburban taken together 25807Doctorsrsquo shortageIn another observation about healthcare the survey noticed a poor allopathy doctorpopulation ratio The state has one doctor per 1188 people ldquoUp to December 2020 161379 of which 72539 are postgraduate allopathy doctors were registered In the past five years 31991 allopathy doctors have recently registered and 72358 doctors have renewed their licences Based on the data of the last five years the estimated doctorpopulation ratio in the State is 11188rdquo said the survey adding that the statersquos population was expected to grow to be 1244 crore this year from 1124 crore that was registered in the 2011 censusMounting debtAccording to the survey the statersquos debt burden was R520717 crore budget estimates while the interest payment due was R35531 crore Last fiscal the debt stock was Rs 464020 crore revised estimates and the interest due was R34173 crore However the current debt which is 196 per cent of the Gross State Domestic Product GSDP is well within the limit of 25 per cent as per the national fiscal policy rulesmdash118 per centExpected growth of manufacturing sectormdash146 per centExpected growth of construction sector