The Mumbai North-East constituency that saw quite a tussle between the Shiv Sena and BJP over the rejection of ticket to the sitting MP has not elected its sitting MP in the immediate next election for the last 40 years. The 46 per cent Marathi voters in the segment will this year prove very decisive in sealing the fate of the two principal candidates here - Sanjay Dina Patil (NCP) and Manoj Kotak (BJP). Unlike the rest of Maharashtra where caste cards play prominently in deciding the winners, the politics in Mumbai relies heavily on ethnic groups that include several castes and regional forces (migrants). Marathis in Mumbai also include a sizable Dalit population.

The campaign for the April 29 polling has already begun, with Patil taking up a lead because of delay in an announcement by the BJP. The primary target of the candidates is the seven lakh Marathi voters. For Congress, the 2.35 lakh Muslims are equally important. For the BJP, the focus is also on the Gujaratis (1.81 lakh) and North Indians (1.51 lakh). Around two lakh other voters form a sizable chunk of the total 15.27 lakh voters in this constituency.