‘If new variants don’t form, there will be no new waves’

Special investigations editor for midday Vinod Kumar Menon chatted with two international experts mdash Dr Lieve Fransen and Dr Jay Levy Dr Fransen is a medical doctor with a PhD in social policies and has extensive experience and credibility in global public health She is a wellrecognised policymaker at the senior management level in the EU in a range of different departments in the European Commission Dr Levy is a virologist and professor of medicine at the University of California San Francisco His discovery of the HIV virus in 1981 was nominated for the Nobel Prize in 2008Edited excerpts from the interviewmiddayrsquos to Dr Fransen Is the vaccine infectivity increasing over a period of time as the mutant strain spreads Could live attenuated vaccines be the cause for the emergence of new variantsThe virus is adapting to survive To survive it needs to multiply in its hosts Several variants have developed over time with increased infectivity More variants will keep developing until the whole population is vaccinated New variants must hold some advantage over the old ones if they are to become the dominant virus That advantage can be won in many ways but for a respiratory disease like Covid19 one factor is transmissibility The answer lies in vaccinating everyoneCould children be more susceptible to this variant Is there a likelihood of a Delta variant changing its pathogenicity rendering kids more susceptible to serious diseaseI do not think kids are more susceptible to the Delta variant But the variant is more transmissible As this age group is not vaccinated yet they may be susceptible When they get infected most often they do not get seriously ill Only some doAlso read lsquoUS to support Indiarsquos vaccination efforts with USD 25 millionrsquoDo you think developing countries like India and South Asian countries should build telemedicines infrastructure to reach the rural areas with the help of trained ASHA workers who can tackle future pandemicsI think all countries can benefit from telehealth In lowincome countries there is lesser resistance to telehealth mdash it could make a major difference in IndiaCovid has adversely impacted the fertility rate of the world including India How could this impact highly populated countries like China and IndiaPregnant women with Covid19 were more likely to deliver preterm compared to pregnant women without Covid Babies born to mothers with Covid are more likely to be admitted to the neonatal unit Data shows Covid has prompted shortterm fertility decline in many countries In developing countries the pandemic has interrupted the supply chain and access to family planning services therefore increasing the risk of unwanted pregnancies So we may have a mixed picture worldwidemidday to Dr Levy Covid variants have been evolving Where and when do you think these mutations will stopDelta variant is passing rapidly through the world and its presence in the US is dominant One needs to get ahead and vaccinate individuals so this variant is blocked by all our immune systemsVinod Kumar MenonDo you think the third wave would impact children across the globe Is this likely to be the last waveThe Delta variant is able to affect kids it has a better chance of attaching to receptors on cells in kids to infect and replicate Will this be the last wave One canrsquot tell but certainly the only way we can prevent it is to get a large number of people vaccinated so that new variants will not form and cause a new waveDo you see the vaccine becoming an annual feature for the world especially now that the new variants are emerging so rapidlyWe are very fortunate in having vaccines as they are preventing infections in over 90 per cent of people It looks to me that these vaccines will have their effect for at least two years and some maybe for five yearsThe Delta variant is causing 80 per cent of the new Covid cases in the USA Do you foresee a similar trend happening in IndiaBecause it can attach more readily to cells the variant has become dominating in the USA It looks like it will be dominated in India as well Except there will be an early response by the population because of the genetic makeup of people in India However India needs to continue to monitor the types of viruses so that it can stay on top of this epidemic