India’s fertility rate dropped from 6.2 in 1950 to under two in 2021, says Lancet study

Experts caution that if the findings of the Lancet study are accurate, India could face a significant decline in population in the years to come

A recent report published in the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet reveals a substantial decline in India’s fertility rate, from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under two in 2021. The report further projects a continued decrease to 1.29 in 2050 and 1.04 in 2100, as indicated by a new global study also published in The Lancet. This decline aligns with global trends, with the total fertility rate (TFR) witnessing a similar decrease. From over 4.8 children per woman in 1950, the TFR has dropped to 2.2 children per woman in 2021. Globally, it is expected to decline to 1.8 in 2050 and further to 1.6 in 2100.

What are the reasons?

According to the analysis, advancements in access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women could drive widespread and sustained declines in global fertility rates. The report highlights that out of 204 countries included in the research, 155 (approximately 76 per cent) are projected to have a TFR lower than the replacement fertility rate (RFR) by 2050. These predictions are based on surveys and data collected between the 1950s and 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GDB). Experts caution that if the findings of the Lancet study are accurate, India could face a significant decline in population in the years to come.

Sharing her insights on the report, Poonam Muttreja, executive director of Population Foundation of India, said, “The decline in the total fertility rate is a global trend influenced by various factors. This trend has profound implications for countries like India, including challenges such as an ageing population, labour force shortages and potential social imbalances due to gender preferences. While these challenges are still a few decades away for India, we need to start acting now. We need to learn from Scandinavian countries like Sweden and Denmark, which are dealing with these challenges by supporting families by providing affordable childcare, investing in healthcare and taking on large-scale male-engagement initiatives.

For women to be able to manage careers with motherhood, it would be crucial for men to take greater responsibility for household and care work. Economic policies that stimulate growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms, will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates.”

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