Will defections affect voters’ choice in state polls?

As Maharashtra heads into the most evenly poised assembly elections in recent memory voters are grappling with an issue that has come to dominate the political landscape of the state over the past few years ndash politicians switching parties and alliancesSeveral politicians have jumped ship based on who they felt had the edge in the general and state polls in 2014 and 2019The chaos and confusion increased after Eknath Shinde in 2022 staged a rebellion and walked away with a large number of legislators from the Shiv Sena then headed by Uddhav Thackeray sending shockwaves to MaharashtraHis rebellion sparked a series of defections within Shiv Sena leading to the splitting of the party into two factions ndash one led by Shinde and the other by Thackeray He took oath as the Chief Minister and formed the government along with the Bharatiya Janata Party BJP and also claimed the Shiv Senarsquos symbol and name on the grounds that he had the maximum number of legislators with him The Election Commission of India also decided that his faction was indeed the lsquorealrsquo Shiv SenaA year later the story repeated but this time the party that split was the Nationalist Congress Party NCP founded by Sharad Pawar in 1999 after he left the Congress which was then headed by Sonia Gandhi Pawarrsquos nephew Ajit who had caused a stir in 2019 too when he briefly aligned with the BJPled coalition walked away with a large number of legislators and party workers Unlike 2019 when he ended his rebellion in three days this time Ajit continued to fight the state polls in alliance with the BJP and Shindeled Shiv SenaThere is a lot of criticism over these two developments in the state which was one of the reasons why Thackeray and Pawarrsquos parties Shiv Sena UBT and NCP SP did well in the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this yearNow with the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 scheduled for November 20 this issue is likely to come to the fore Ahead of the state polls too several leaders have switched parties after they were denied ticketsVoters have repeatedly questioned how politicians can join parties or alliances that have diametrically opposite views to what they believed in for yearsParty hopping Impact on voterVoters are not thrilled about the frequent partyhopping witnessed in recent years For many it raises questions about loyalty principles and the integrity of politiciansI have always voted for Shiv Sena but seeing leaders such as Eknath Shinde and other rebels leave for personal gains makes me question their intentions says Nilesh Patil a 45yearold resident of Mumbais Ghatkopar area We feel betrayed when politicians switch sides Do they care about ideology Its all about power and position for themPatilrsquos sentiments are shared by many who feel that these political manoeuvres undermine the trust of the electorateldquoItrsquos disheartening Shiv Sena has always been a party of the people but now it seems like itrsquos just another political game says Priya Deshmukh a 38yearold homemaker from Mankhurd Politicians dont care about us They care only about what benefits themHowever Swapnil Tele an IT professional from Kalyan believes that Shindersquos faction is the real Shiv Sena ldquoThe Shiv Sena and Congress had exactly opposite ideologies How could Uddhav Thackeray ally with the Congress a party that his father the late Balasaheb Thackeray opposed throughout his lifetime When Shinde and the other legislators felt that the core ideologies of the party were being compromised they went with their original ally the BJP We have traditionally been Shiv Sena voters and the CM has done good work Wersquoll continue to back himrdquo said the 28yearoldSudha Shankar Deshpande a 56yearold Pune resident said ldquoWhen you change sides so frequently it shows you dont have a true commitment to the people or the cause you once stood for While we despise politicians jumping ship the fact is that there are other issues also that need to be taken into consideration before we cast our voteStrategy or greed Why has the state seen so many political diversionsFor political leaders partyhopping is often seen as a strategic move Some argue that shifting parties allows them to align with more powerful or dominant political forces ensuring political survival and access to resources It is also a reflection of the changing dynamics of Maharashtrarsquos political landscapeldquoThe shifting allegiances of these leaders are often a result of the changing dynamics within the statersquos political ecosystem Leaders frequently move to parties they think will help them secure powerrdquo says Anand Deshpande a political analyst from PuneManish Ranjan a political analyst from the national capital says that Maharashtrarsquos political landscape is very different from the rest of the country and it is difficult to call the election outcome here ldquoEven after the BJP and Shiv Sena had allied in 2019 before the polls Thackeray took a Uturn and demanded the chief ministership after the BJP failed to secure a majority on its own While individual politicians leave parties for ticket or ministerial berths alliances are also broken for the same reasons as Thackeray later became the CM with the help of the Congress and NCP This is a very difficult election to predict And after the predictions went wrong in the Lok Sabha and Haryana polls no one can say with certainty on which alliance will the voter stand withParty or ideology Is the voter loyalDespite the widespread dissatisfaction with partyswitching there remains a large base of voters who continue to follow their leaders Voter loyalty in many cases transcends party affiliation and is tied to the personal popularity of individual politiciansldquoVoters in my constituency support Eknath Shinde because of his longstanding relationship with the people especially in the Thane area His popularity isnrsquot based on the party but his work on the groundrdquo says Santosh Patil 63 a retired government employee Voters tend to follow their local leaders not the party they belong to This is why leaders who switch parties often manage to retain their support baseldquoI still support Shinde even though he left Shiv Sena Hersquos a local leader who understands our issues The lsquoLadki Bahin Yojanarsquo will help him come back to powerrdquo says 42yearold Shreekala Prabhakar a resident of MaladAs Maharashtra moves closer to election day the big question remains Will all these defections impact the electoral outcomeRanjan adds ldquoVoters will consider the lsquodouble enginersquo factor where a National Democratic Alliance government in the Centre and a Mahayuti regime in the state would be beneficial for Maharashtrarsquos development Voters are smart Most voters believe that loyalties to parties and individuals mean nothing if they do not deliver Especially for cities such as Mumbai and Pune infrastructure development is of prime importance Accessibility to funds from the Centre is crucial for such projects I also do not believe that the NDA or Mahayuti failed to put up a good performance in the Lok Sabha polls owing to diversions They just could not manage the narrative mechanisms that the Opposition had tactfully shaped They also lacked onground campaigning whereas MVA Maha Vikas Aghadi workers went to several villages across the state for the campaigns If this time the Mahayuti works on these issues it will be too tight an election to callrdquo