Analysts say Assembly polls would be tougher, but there’s time to shift focus to local issues
The BJP managed to retain the Mumbai North seat where Piyush Goyal emerged victorious. Pic/Anurag Ahire
The Lok Sabha election did not prove to be the cakewalk that the BJP and its allies expected it to be. In fact, after UP, it is Maharashtra that has played a crucial role in hitting the brakes on the Narendra Modi-led BJP juggernaut.
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As the 288-strong Maharashtra Assembly is expected to go to the polls around October 2024, it would be interesting to see whether the sympathy factor for the MVA continues or whether the Modi magic can be revived, helping the current Mahayuvti-led government retain power in the state.
MVA-Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the Congress bagged 30 (including one independent—Congress rebel from Sangli) of the total 48 parliamentary seats in Maharashtra. Such was the setback for the Mahayuvti in the state that the BJP, Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena put together, couldn’t even reach a total tally of MPs in the state that the BJP alone had in 2019. In the last parliamentary polls, the Maharashtra BJP won 23 seats.
In the past two Lok Sabha elections, the NDA won most of the seats in Maharashtra—42 seats in 2014 and 41 in 2019. But, post the change in political equations in the state—the split in the Shiv Sena and NCP—in 2024 the BJP managed to win just 11 seats taking its tally down by 12 seats as against 23 in 2019.
Political pundits and even the Ajit Pawar-led NCP camp leader Chhagan Bhujbal had on several occasions stated that there was huge sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Pawar Sr on the ground.
No wonder then that during the parliamentary poll campaign, both Uddhav Thackeray (UBT) and Sharad Pawar (NCP SP) often alluded to the split being engineered in their respective parties allegedly at the behest of the BJP. And, the impact could well be seen in the results as Maharashtra voters leaned towards sympathy over Modi Magic.
Triple-engine Sarkar
In fact, such was the dent to the Mahayuti, especially for the BJP, that of the six Union ministers from the incumbent BJP government, only three—Nitin Gadkari, Piyush Goyal and Narayan Rane—won the election. Bharati Pawar, Raosaheb Danve and Kapil Patil didn’t make it.
If the parliamentary elections are being seen as a dress rehearsal for the state Assembly elections, then the big challenge before the ‘triple-engine sarkar’ would be to retain power in the state as MVA leaders could once again try to latch on to the sympathy factor for the state polls.
In the 2019 Assembly polls, though the BJP had emerged as the largest party (with 105 seats), it fell short of reaching a majority. Shiv Sena had won 56 seats, two more than the Nationalist Congress Party. Congress had bagged 44 seats.
The situation is no longer the same as the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance had contested against the Congress-NCP. In 2022, the Shiv Sena split into two factions with Eknath Shinde leading rebel MLAs to join hands with the BJP. Shinde was made the CM, despite BJP having more MLAs. Last year, NCP was divided with Ajit Pawar, too, joining the BJP-Shinde camp. The trio later started being referred to as triple-engine sarkar.
Assembly poll advantage
However, the advantage for MVA will be a continuation of the sympathy factor and most importantly whether Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar camp) and Shiv Sena (UBT) stay united for the state polls and ensure smooth distribution of Assembly tickets.
Many experts feel that the Assembly polls would be much harder than the general polls. “For Lok Sabha, Modi was the centre of the campaign and other issues like employment, development work, who the candidate is and which party he/she belongs to was secondary. Hence, during the campaign, the PM and other saffron leaders used the appeal—every vote to your candidate means a vote for Modi. But, during the Assembly polls, this will not be the case. The polls will be contested on local and state issues. This may lead to a further intensified battle between the two camps—one trying to retain power and the other trying to overthrow the existing government,” a political analyst said while speaking to mid-day.
However, this doesn’t mean it is game over for the Mahayuti. The triple-engine sarkar still stands a good chance as it has three to four months to take stock of the situation and implement damage control to regain the confidence of Maharashtra’s voters and ensure it retains power in the state.
Ajit Pawar has managed to win merely one seat despite contesting five seats (four for NCP and one for RSP). The Shinde camp contested 15 of which they managed to win six seats. Both factions of the Shiv Sena were contesting against each other on 13 seats. While the NCP factions which were competing against each other in two seats and Ajit Pawar lost to Pawar Sr candidates.
With such a performance, along with the BJP, it is the allies—Shinde and Pawar Jr—who will have to do more and something different to improve its performance for the assembly polls as voters have not endorsed the split which both the leaders had engineered in their respective parties.
In Mumbai, the MVA bagged four of the total six seats, with BJP and the Shinde camp winning one seat each. The Mahayuti lost five seats, despite the Raj Thackeray-led MNS extending unconditional support to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Issues unresolved
Besides, issues related to farm produce, farmers’ condition, crop loss, infrastructure, employment and the Maratha reservation factor will be one thing that will need to be closely watched.
Manoj Jarange Patil who started the Maratha movement with much fanfare has threatened to field candidates in all the 288 Maharashtra Legislative Assembly seats if the “sage-soyare” notification to get reservations for the community under the OBC category is not implemented as assured to him by the current Mahayuti government.
Not only, Jarange, if Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) inks a poll pact, equations are likely to change drastically. Earlier, VBA founder president Prakash Ambedkar had sought an alliance with Patil for the parliamentary polls, but it did not materialise.
Besides all these factors, one thing that needs to be addressed on priority is the infighting within the party, especially over the issue of loyal cadre been neglected and “outsiders” being given importance over them. Though this is not spoken about openly within the power corridors, it is the subject that has been discussed among many of the BJP rank and file during candid communication among themselves.
48
No. of parliamentary seats in state
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