Mumbai: ‘Second COVID-19 wave likely, ’ say experts

The slight surge in the number of fresh COVID cases in Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra has prompted experts to caution that a second wave might be on its way But unlike the first phase of the virus attack the severity is less this time they say The BKC COVID Jumbo Centre has reported a marginal rise in the number of patients getting admittedDr Subhash Hira Professor of Global Health at the University of WashingtonSeattle and advisor to UN and Indian health agencies Dr Ketan Vagolkar professor of Surgery D Y Patil Medical College Dr Wiqar Shaikh Professor of Medicine Grant Medical College and Sir JJ Group of hospitalsAs of Tuesday it had 192 patients including 40 in ICU By late evening six more were brought in from Mulund Jumbo Centre for close monitoringDr Rajesh Dhere dean of the BKC centre said people aged between 35 and 55 form the bulk of the new cases We presume they might have come in contact with infected carriers during the initial days soon after the local trains were reopened for everyone We will have to wait and watch for the next 14 to 28 days to check the patternThe upward trend in Mumbai and across MMR was expected said Dr Ketan Vagolkar professor of Surgery D Y Patil Medical College underlining that it should serve as a warning to citizens Special emphasis should be laid on the use of a mask especially on public transport vehicles and stations Despite taking precautionary measures if one has the slightest doubts about COVID symptoms then the family physician or nearest healthcare facility should be contacted immediatelyrdquo said Dr VagolkarA pandemic sets off waves for an unpredictable length of time said Dr Wiqar Shaikh professor of Medicine Grant Medical College and Sir JJ Group of hospitals as he sought to not paint the current situation alarming The spikes will not be as bad compared to the first spike All subsequent spikes should be expected to be lower than the previous oneHumans have lived with bacteria and viruses for centuries and the coronavirus too is here to stay he said On the contrary everything needs to be opened up including schools colleges trains and flights said Dr ShaikhTesting being done at the virus immunology centre inside the BKC Jumbo COVID Centre File picThe expert said daily cases have plunged from 1 lakh in September last year to about 10000 on Monday This is an indication of lsquoherd immunityrsquo developing in the Indian population particularly in view of the fact that only a small fraction of the Indian population has been given the first dose of the COVID19 vaccines so far said Dr Shaikh adding that herd immunity is of utmost since it will take years to inoculate the entire populationDr Subhash Hira Professor of Global Health at the University of WashingtonSeattle and advisor to UN and Indian health agencies said at a recent WHO review among over 100 scientists concerns were raised over the emergence of mutant strains in Europe South Africa Brazil and North AmericaAlmost 93 per cent of these new cases in South Africa are attributed to a new strain called B1351 said In the case of the South African strain the AstraZeneca vaccine has been found to be only 104 per cent effective he said adding this has triggered rumours that the African nation has decided to return 1 million doses of CoviShield Incidentally travel restrictions in South Africa were already strict in the past two months and travel is less likely to have contributed significantly to rapid spread of mutant strainsrdquo said the expertSimilar more potent mutants labelled as B117 and PI have emerged from Brazil once again swarming hospitals with patients he saidBrazilian scientists are considering three possible reasons that will also be applicable to resurgence of COVID cases in Mumbai and other cities of Maharashtra and elsewhere in India First possibly the protective antibodies of the first wave that happened during AprilAugust 2020 started to wean away within six months Second new mutant strains seem to be evading immunity protection generated by the first wave during the first six months itself Third the mutant strains might have better transmissibility rate causing a fresh wave of cases Most scientists believe that it is a combination of all three reasons in these countries that are facing a fresh new wave of cases Dr Hira saidAny laxity over masks and other protocols will cost everyone dearly said Dr Hira stressing the need for tracking Surveillance of mutant strains such as the British one has been slow by the ICMR Some remote tests for South African and Brazilian mutants by ICMR might have been initiated but not yet reported globallyHe added A sobering lesson for the Indian ministries of health research agencies and vaccine companies is to secure our national environments once again before similar shutdowns of the past become mandatory options