Centre dismisses report claiming Covid-19 deaths higher than official count

The Government of India on Friday dismissed a recently published article in a reputed international journal that provided estimates of allcause excess mortality for a number of countries based on a mathematical modelling exercise and said that the report is speculative and misinformedMinistry of Health and Family Welfare in a statement issued today said that the study has concluded that although reported Covid19 deaths between January 1 2020 and December 31 2021 totalled 594 million worldwide but an estimated 182 million 95 per cent uncertainty interval 171196 people died worldwide because of the Covid19 pandemic as measured by excess mortality over that periodThis is yet another estimate on excess mortality due to Covid19 by another set of researchers said the ministryMathematical modelling techniques are essentially process of creating a mathematical representation of a realworld scenario to make a prediction Such predictions are founded on certain set of inputs either based on realworld scenarios or approximations of those which may vary in accuracy according to the technique used inputs that are not available stated the ministryIt further said Often these studies involve taking a relatively small actual sample and extrapolating the result to the entire population While this may achieve near accurate results for a small homogenous countryregion such techniques have failed repeatedly to give reliable results for a large diverse populationAccording to the ministry the study takes into account different methodologies for different countries and for India for example data sources used by this study appears to have been taken from newspaper reports and nonpeerreviewed studies This model uses data of allcause excess mortality created by another nonpeerreviewed model as an input and this raises serious concerns about the accuracy of the results of this statistical exercise the ministry saidIt further said that strangely the methodology adopts data from newspapers at varied intervals to extrapolate without any scientific basis for the total period under study The pandemic had multiple surges during the period and varied trajectories across different states substate level also at any point in time hence the methodology used by this study is less than robust said the ministryChhattisgarhs excess mortality has been calculated based on an article that assumes that 40 times more deaths have occurred in April and May 2021 For states where Civil Registration System was available reported deaths during the pandemic has been compared with average reported deaths for the same period in the year 2018 and 2019 which doesnt take into account multiple pandemic management efforts including lockdown containment zones testing and contact tracing wider dissemination and implementation of clinical management protocols and worlds largest vaccination drive which form the foundation of pandemic management in the countryAs per the ministrys statement detailed guidelines for reporting of deaths due to Covid19 have been issued by Union Health Ministry to all StatesUTs Indian Council for Medical Research ICMR on May 10 2020 issued Guidance for appropriate recording of Covid19 related deaths in IndiaIt stated that the reporting of deaths is regularly done in a transparent manner and is daily updated in the public domain on the website of the Union Ministry of Health Even the backlog in Covid19 mortality data being submitted by the States at different times is reconciled in the data of the Government of India on a regular basis Furthermore there is a financial incentive in India to report Covid19 deaths as they are entitled to monetary compensation Hence the likelihood of underreporting is lessIt is noted that authors have themselves admitted that Direct measurement would be preferable to modelled excess mortality estimates not based on allcause mortality data which are usually more robust from the locations themselvesFurther the ministry said that they have mentioned that as studies from a few selected countries including the Netherlands and Sweden have suggested we suspect most of the excess mortality during the pandemic is from Covid19 However sufficient empirical evidence is absent in most countries Given the high amount of heterogeneity in epidemiological profiles among countries it is prudent not to make such strong assumptions before more research on this topic is doneIt stated that the authors have also accepted that strict lockdown and mediation interventions can lead to negative excess mortality during the pandemic and As more information becomes available in the near future further improvements to our estimates are warranted And that various drivers are responsible for the changes in allcause and causespecific mortality in a population Therefore in estimating excess mortality due to Covid19 the roles of confounders of changes in mortality during the pandemic should be resolvedThey have themselves admitted that Finally the development and deployment of SARSCOV2 vaccines have considerably lowered mortality rates among people who contract the virus and among the general population As a result we expect trends in excess mortality due to Covid19 to change over time as the coverage of vaccination increases among populations and as new variants emerge There will be great value in continuing to estimate excess mortality over time as these and other factors shift said the ministryIt is highlighted that quoting issues as sensitive as death that too during an ongoing global public health crisis like pandemic Covid19 should be dealt with facts and with the required sensitivity said the ministry adding that this type of speculative reporting has the potential to create panic in the community can misguide people and should be avoidedThis story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed agencies Midday accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability trustworthiness reliability and 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