A possible third wave of coronavirus infection can hit its peak between October-November if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, but it may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, said a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling of Covid-19 cases. However, Covid infection can spread faster during the third wave if any new virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges, said Manindra Agarwal who is working with the Sutra Model-- the mathematical projection of the Covid-19 trajectory.

The panel was formed by the Department of Science and Technology last year to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models. Besides Agarwal, who is a scientist with IIT-Kanpur, the panel also has M Vidyasagar, another scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt. Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, as members. The panel had earlier received flak for not predicting the ferocity of the second wave of Covid-19 in the country.