India may see a third wave of Covid-19 peaking between October and November if a more virulent mutant than the existing ones emerge by September, but its intensity is expected to be much lower than the second wave, a scientist involved in the mathematical modelling of the pandemic said on Monday. Manindra Agrawal, an IIT-Kanpur scientist who is part of the three-member team of experts tasked with predicting surge in infections, said if no new virulent emerges, then the situation is unlikely to change.

If the third wave peaks, the country may see only 1 lakh daily cases as against 4 lakh-plus in May when the deadly second wave was at its peak. Last month, the model suggested that the daily cases could shoot between 1.5 lakh to 2 lakh if the third peaked between October and November. However, no mutant that was more infectious than the Delta, which drove the infections during the second wave, has emerged yet.